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. 2013 Sep 19;7(9):e2421.
doi: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0002421. eCollection 2013.

Current and future niche of North and Central American sand flies (Diptera: psychodidae) in climate change scenarios

David Moo-Llanes  1 , Carlos N Ibarra-Cerdeña, Eduardo A Rebollar-Téllez, Sergio Ibáñez-Bernal, Camila González, Janine M Ramsey
Affiliations

Current and future niche of North and Central American sand flies (Diptera: psychodidae) in climate change scenarios

David Moo-Llanes et al. PLoS Negl Trop Dis. .

Abstract

Ecological niche models are useful tools to infer potential spatial and temporal distributions in vector species and to measure epidemiological risk for infectious diseases such as the Leishmaniases. The ecological niche of 28 North and Central American sand fly species, including those with epidemiological relevance, can be used to analyze the vector's ecology and its association with transmission risk, and plan integrated regional vector surveillance and control programs. In this study, we model the environmental requirements of the principal North and Central American phlebotomine species and analyze three niche characteristics over future climate change scenarios: i) potential change in niche breadth, ii) direction and magnitude of niche centroid shifts, iii) shifts in elevation range. Niche identity between confirmed or incriminated Leishmania vector sand flies in Mexico, and human cases were analyzed. Niche models were constructed using sand fly occurrence datapoints from Canada, USA, Mexico, Guatemala and Belize. Nine non-correlated bioclimatic and four topographic data layers were used as niche components using GARP in OpenModeller. Both B2 and A2 climate change scenarios were used with two general circulation models for each scenario (CSIRO and HadCM3), for 2020, 2050 and 2080. There was an increase in niche breadth to 2080 in both scenarios for all species with the exception of Lutzomyia vexator. The principal direction of niche centroid displacement was to the northwest (64%), while the elevation range decreased greatest for tropical, and least for broad-range species. Lutzomyia cruciata is the only epidemiologically important species with high niche identity with that of Leishmania spp. in Mexico. Continued landscape modification in future climate change will provide an increased opportunity for the geographic expansion of NCA sand flys' ENM and human exposure to vectors of Leishmaniases.

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Conflict of interest statement

The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1. Sand fly richness for North and Central America, based on ecological niche models (ENM's).
A: present, B: 2020, C: 2050, D: 2080. Dots represent sand fly collection sites.
Figure 2
Figure 2. Ecological niche models for Lutzomyia shannoni (tropical).
A) A2 scenario, CSIRO model; B) A2 scenario, HadCM3 model; C) B2 scenario, CSIRO model and D) B2 scenario, HadCM3 model.
Figure 3
Figure 3. Ecological niche models for Lutzomyia cruciata (tropical).
A) A2 scenario, CSIRO model; B) A2 scenario, HadCM3 model; C) B2 scenario, CSIRO model and D) B2 scenario, HadCM3 model.
Figure 4
Figure 4. Ecological niche models for Lutzomyia olmeca olmeca (tropical).
A) A2 scenario, CSIRO model; B) A2 scenario, HadCM3 model; C) B2 scenario, CSIRO model and D) B2 scenario, HadCM3 model.
Figure 5
Figure 5. Ecological niche models for Lutzomyia vexator (broad-range).
A) A2 scenario, CSIRO model; B) A2 scenario, HadCM3 model; C) B2 scenario, CSIRO model and D) B2 scenario, HadCM3 model.
Figure 6
Figure 6. Proportion of pixels for sand fly ENM from current to 2080 in the B2 scenario.
Predicted future scenarios using the CSIRO model (left) and HadCM3 model (right). Empty circles = tropical species; solid dot = temperate species; asterisk = broad-range species.
Figure 7
Figure 7. Changes in niche breadth, ENM centroid and elevational range in B2 scenario.
The circle size represents the proportional distribution change, while the thickness is proportional to the overlap percentage between current and 2050 projections (border thickness of 0.5 pt = 25–50%; 1 pt = 51–75%; 2 pt = 76–100%). The direction of the arrow represents the direction of change of the centroid position and its size represents its magnitude. The elevational range changes are represented by the bars (bar up = increase; bar below = decrease). Epidemiologically important species are: 1) Lu. anthophora, 2) Lu. cruciata, 3) Lu. diabolica, 4) Lu. longipalpis, 5) Lu. olmeca olmeca, 6) Lu. ovallesi, 7) Lu. panamensis, 8) Lu. shannoni and 9) Lu. ylephiletor.
Figure 8
Figure 8. Niche identity test for sand fly species and Leishmania spp. (PEN), for Mexico.
A) Map of sandfly species richness (compendium of all ENM models; gray), Leishmania spp. PEN (red), and datapoints for all sand flies and Leishmania; B) Niche identity test for Lu. cruciata and PEN; C) Niche identity test for Lu. olmeca olmeca and PEN. The histograms represents the entire range of Hellinger's based I values from the 100 random-drawn models, while the observed identity is represented by a black arrow.
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Grants and funding

We thank the Consejo Nacional de Ciencia y Tecnología (CONACYT) for a scholarship to DML (2009–2011). The project was financed partially by a grant from CONACYT-SEMARNAT #108158 to JMR (Instituto Nacional de Salud Pública). The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.