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Review
. 2012 Dec 1;380(9857):1956-65.
doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(12)61684-5.

Prediction and prevention of the next pandemic zoonosis

Stephen S Morse  1 , Jonna A K Mazet, Mark Woolhouse, Colin R Parrish, Dennis Carroll, William B Karesh, Carlos Zambrana-Torrelio, W Ian Lipkin, Peter Daszak
Affiliations
Review

Prediction and prevention of the next pandemic zoonosis

Stephen S Morse et al. Lancet. .

Abstract

Most pandemics--eg, HIV/AIDS, severe acute respiratory syndrome, pandemic influenza--originate in animals, are caused by viruses, and are driven to emerge by ecological, behavioural, or socioeconomic changes. Despite their substantial effects on global public health and growing understanding of the process by which they emerge, no pandemic has been predicted before infecting human beings. We review what is known about the pathogens that emerge, the hosts that they originate in, and the factors that drive their emergence. We discuss challenges to their control and new efforts to predict pandemics, target surveillance to the most crucial interfaces, and identify prevention strategies. New mathematical modelling, diagnostic, communications, and informatics technologies can identify and report hitherto unknown microbes in other species, and thus new risk assessment approaches are needed to identify microbes most likely to cause human disease. We lay out a series of research and surveillance opportunities and goals that could help to overcome these challenges and move the global pandemic strategy from response to pre-emption.

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Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1
Global hotspots for emerging infectious diseases that originate in wildlife A database of all known emerging infectious diseases since 1940 was used to identify the most likely origins of each separate emergence event. Presence or absence of infections emerging from wildlife was analysed with logistic regression against a series of known drivers, including human population density, change in human population density, and wildlife diversity (mammalian species richness), gridded at 1 km2 resolution. The global distribution of model outputs gives a measure of the likelihood of a region to generate a new zoonotic emerging infectious disease that originates in wildlife. Because previous pandemics have mainly originated in wildlife, these maps identify hotspots where the next pandemic is most likely to originate.
Figure 2
Figure 2
Emergence of pandemic zoonotic disease Stage 1 is a pre-emergence state, in which naturally occurring microbes are transmitted between their animal reservoirs. Disturbances to the ecology of these populations (eg, due to changes in land use) change the dynamics of microbial transmission and can lead to a heightened risk of pathogen spillover to other non-human wildlife or livestock hosts (but not people). Stage 2 is localised emergence, either through self-limiting spillover events (green peaks and troughs, representing the rise and fall in numbers of infected people with time) or large- scale spillover (red peaks, representing spikes in the number of infected people with time), that leads to person-to-person transmission for a few pathogen generations. In stage 3, some spillover events might lead to indefinitely sustained person-to-person outbreaks, international or global spread, and the emergence of a true pandemic. The size, spread, and potential effect of events increase from stage 1 to stage 3, but the frequency falls so that full stage 3 pandemics are quite rare. By dissecting this process and analysing the interactions of the underlying drivers with the risk of spillover and spread, development of a more structured approach to pandemic prevention is possible. The ultimate goal of successful pandemic prevention is to move the control point to stage 1.
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