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Review
. 2008 Dec;19(6):652-60.
doi: 10.1016/j.copbio.2008.10.009. Epub 2008 Nov 18.

Impact of global warming on viral diseases: what is the evidence?

Roland Zell  1 , Andi Krumbholz, Peter Wutzler
Affiliations
Review

Impact of global warming on viral diseases: what is the evidence?

Roland Zell et al. Curr Opin Biotechnol. 2008 Dec.

Abstract

Global warming is believed to induce a gradual climate change. Hence, it was predicted that tropical insects might expand their habitats thereby transmitting pathogens to humans. Although this concept is a conclusive presumption, clear evidence is still lacking--at least for viral diseases. Epidemiological data indicate that seasonality of many diseases is further influenced by strong single weather events, interannual climate phenomena, and anthropogenic factors. So far, emergence of new diseases was unlinked to global warming. Re-emergence and dispersion of diseases was correlated with translocation of pathogen-infected vectors or hosts. Coupled ocean/atmosphere circulations and 'global change' that also includes shifting of demographic, social, and economical conditions are important drivers of viral disease variability whereas global warming at best contributes.

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Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1
Bluetongue disease in Europe and the USA and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) index. Shown are decadal variations of annual SST anomalies from 1850 to 2005 in the extratropical North Atlantic (30–65°N). The time series is relative to the 1961–1990 mean (°C). Modified after [4•].
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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