Background: Evaluations of epidemiologic risk factors in relation to breast cancer classified jointly by estrogen receptor (ER) and progesterone receptor (PR) status have been inconsistent. To address this issue, we conducted a prospective evaluation of risk factors for breast cancer classified according to receptor status.

Methods: During 1 029 414 person-years of follow-up of 66 145 women participating in the Nurses' Health Study from 1980 through 2000, we identified 2096 incident cases of breast cancer for which information on ER/PR status was available: 1281 were ER+/PR+, 318 were ER+/PR-, 80 were ER-/PR+, and 417 were ER-/PR-. We fit a log-incidence model of breast cancer and used polychotomous logistic regression to compare coefficients for breast cancer risk factors in patients with different ER/PR status. To test for differences in risk factor odds ratios based on marginal ER/PR categories, we evaluated ER status controlling for PR status and vice versa. The predictive ability of our log-incidence model to discriminate between women who would develop ER+/PR+ breast cancer and those who would not (and similarly for ER-/PR- breast cancer) was evaluated by using receiver operator characteristic curve analysis. All statistical tests were two-sided.

Results: We observed statistically significant heterogeneity among the four ER/PR categories for some risk factors (age, menopausal status, body mass index [BMI] after menopause, the one-time adverse effect of first pregnancy, and past use of postmenopausal hormones) but not for others (benign breast disease, family history of breast cancer, alcohol use, and height). The one-time adverse association of first pregnancy with incidence was present for PR- but not for PR+ tumors after controlling for ER status (P =.007). However, the association of BMI after menopause with incidence was present for PR+ but not PR- tumors (P =.005). Statistically significant differences in the incidence of ER+ and ER- tumors were seen with age, both before and after menopause (P =.003), and with past use of postmenopausal hormones (P =.01). Area under the receiver operator characteristic curve, adjusted for age, was 0.64 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.63 to 0.66) for ER+/PR+ tumors and 0.61 (95% CI = 0.58 to 0.64) for ER-/PR- tumors.

Conclusions: Incidence rates and risk factors for breast cancer differ according to ER and PR status. Thus, to accurately estimate breast cancer risk, breast cancer cases should be divided according to the ER and PR status of the tumor.