Objectives: To analyse risk factors for morbidity and survival associated with blood cytomegalovirus (CMV) detection with the antigenemia method among AIDS patients.

Patients and methods: CMV antigenemia and CMV blood cultures in 277 AIDS patients IgG-CMV sero-positive with a CD4 level lower than 200 x 10(6)/l under antiretroviral monotherapy were analysed. We consider cases the 116 patients with one or more positive blood samples tested for pp65 antigenemia or CMV culture. They were matched with 161 control patients with negative antigenemia or viremia.

Results: Multivariate analysis pointed out a significant positive association for blood CMV reactivation with the following variables: CMV disease development and CMV urine detection, sex-acquired HIV infection, CD4+ < 50 x 10(6)/l and matched time from AIDS diagnosis to CMV blood culture correlated with positive antigenemias. Quantitative antigenemia title showed predictive value for risk of CMV disease although 23% of retinitis patients had persistent undetectable antigenemia. CMV invasive disease developed in 48% of cases and 11% of controls (relative risk [RR]: 7.9; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 4.2-14.7). Mortality after 12 months of follow-up was 73% vs 52% respectively (p < 0.001). Time survival curves after CD4+ count adjusting remained significantly lower for case patients (median, 127 days vs 355 days; p < 0.01 by log-rank test). Increased death rate was found in patients with CMV disease (74%), followed by patients with CMV antigenemia but no disease (70%) and patients without antigenemia or CMV disease (mortality 49%).

Conclusions: CMV blood detection in AIDS patients may be considered as a bad prognosis marker for CMV morbidity and survival. This risk increases with higher CMV antigenemias. Therefore, pre-emptive anti-CMV therapy should be considered in this restricted population.