WITH so many swing states still extremely close, President Bush has a chance of squeaking to victory by winning just one of the three big swing states, Ohio, Florida and Pennsylvania.
The Bush and Kerry camps each need to win 270 electoral votes to claim the White House, and the most likely scenario is that whoever take two of the biggest swing states will win the election.
Bush could win with only one of those three because Kerry has yet to lock up four states that Al Gore won in the Upper Midwest. They have a total of 44 electoral votes – Wisconsin (10), where Bush has topped most recent polls, Iowa (7), Minnesota (10) and even Michigan (17).
Bush could potentially draw from them to make up for losing Ohio or Florida, as long as he holds his other 2000 states.
Bush, who won 271 electoral votes in 2000, has a stronger starting position in the 2004 contest, thanks to population shifts which will give him 278 votes if he wins the same states as last time.
Say Bush loses Ohio’s 20 electoral votes. That would take him down to 258. Winning Wisconsin and Iowa – or, for that matter, the 2000 Gore squeaker state of New Mexico (5) – would put him over 270.
If Bush loses Florida’s 27, he could still make up the needed electoral votes. It is even possible to construct a very unlikely scenario where Bush could lose both Florida and Ohio and still make up the needed votes by sweeping the Upper Midwest.
Most analysts find it hard to imagine that Bush could win Michigan. Kerry tops the latest poll, but a poll just a few days earlier gave Bush a 4-point lead.
Kerry has a smaller number of scenarios because outside of Florida and Ohio, the Bush 2000 states that the president has yet to lock up are small – New Hampshire (4) and Nevada (5). Colorado (9) is still counted a swing state but all recent polls show Bush with a lead.
FOUR POSSIBLE ELECTORAL COLLEGE SCENARIOS
Each candidate needs 270 electoral votes to win White House
1. Whoever wins two of the three big swing states, Ohio (20), Florida (27), and Pennsylvania (21) will win, as long as they also hold the states each party won in 2000.
2. Bush wins – even if Kerry picks up Ohio (20) and holds Pennsylvania (21) – if the President can make up 12 electoral votes. Possible ways to do it: Pick up Wisconsin (10) plus Iowa (7) or New Mexico (5).
3. Kerry wins if he picks up Florida (27) and holds Pennsylvania (21), unless Bush manages to make up 19 electoral votes. Possible ways to do it: Pick up Wisconsin (10) plus Iowa (7) and New Mexico (5); Or Wisconsin (10) and Minnesota (10).
4. Outcome tied at 269 votes each if holds all his 2000 states except New Hampshire (4) and Nevada (5). The Republican-controlled House of Representatives would decide the election.
* 270 electoral votes need to win the White House
MAPPING THE RACE FOR THE WHITE HOUSE
Key: Red – states leaning to Bush (213 electoral votes)
Blue – states leaning to Kerry (207 electoral votes)
Striped – Swing states (118 electoral votes)
State: Ohio – striped
Latest poll (Gallup, 10/17-20): Bush 47%, Kerry 48%
Visits since March 3: Bush 13, Kerry 19
Who won in 2000: Bush by 3.5 percent
Total Electors: 20
State: Florida – striped
Latest poll (Quinnipiac, 10/15-19): Bush 48%, Kerry 47%
Visits since March 3: Bush 13, Kerry 15
Who won in 2000: Bush by 0.1 percent
Total Electors: 27
State: Pennsylvania – striped
Latest poll (Quinnipiac, 10/16-20): Bush 46%, Kerry 51%
Visits since March 3: Bush 13, Kerry 19
Who won in 2000: Gore by 4.2 percent
Total Electors: 21
State: New Hampshire – striped
Latest poll (ARG, 10/16-10/18): Bush 47%, Kerry 46%
Visits since March 3: Bush 5, Kerry 2
Who won in 2000: Bush by 1.3 percent
Total Electors: 4
State: Minnesota – striped
Latest poll (Mason-Dixon, 10/15-18): Bush 47%, Kerry 45%
Visits since March 3: Bush 5, Kerry 5
Who won in 2000: Gore by 2.4 percent
Total Electors: 10
State: Wisconsin – striped
Latest poll (CNN/USA Today/Gallup, 10/16-19): Bush 50%, Kerry 44%
Visits since March 3: Bush 9, Kerry 9
Who won in 2000: Gore by 0.2 percent
Total Electors: 10
State: Nevada – striped
Latest poll (Survey USA, 10/16-18): Bush 52%, Kerry 44%
Visits since March 3: Bush 3, Kerry 4
Who won in 2000: Bush by 3.5 percent
Total Electors: 5
State: New Mexico – striped
Latest poll (ARG, 10/16-18): Bush 46%, Kerry 48%
Visits since March 3: Bush 4, Kerry 6
Who won in 2000: Gore by 0.06 percent
Total Electors: 5
State: Colorado – striped
Latest poll (Survey USA, 10/18-20): Bush 52%, Kerry 45%
Visits since March 3: Bush 4, Kerry 6
Who won in 2000: Bush by 8.4 percent
Total Electors: 9
State: Iowa – striped
Latest poll (Survey USA, 10/18-20): Bush 51, Kerry 45
Visits since March 3: Bush 8, Kerry 8
Who won in 2000: Gore by 0.3 percent
Total Electors: 7
LEANERS – Blue
State: Oregon
Latest poll (CNN/USA Today/Gallup, 10/15-18): Bush 46%, Kerry 47%
Visits since March 3: Bush 2, Kerry 3
Who won in 2000: Gore by 0.5 percent
Total Electors: 7
State: Maine
Latest poll (SUSA, 10/17-19): Bush 45%, Kerry 51%
Visits since March 3: Bush 5, Kerry 0
Who won in 2000: Gore by 5.1 percent
Total Electors: 4
State: New Jersey
Latest poll (Survey USA, 10/16-18): Bush 43%, Kerry 51%
Visits since March 3: Bush 1, Kerry 0
Who won in 2000: Gore by 16 percent
Total Electors: 15
Sate: Missouri
Latest poll (Survey USA, 10/16-18): Bush 51%, Kerry 45%
Visits since March 3: Bush 7, Kerry 7Who won in 2000: Bush by 3.3 percentTotal Electors: 11
State: Arizona
Latest poll (Arizona Republic, 10/18-19): Bush 47%, Kerry 40%
Visits since March 3: Bush 1, Kerry 1
Who won in 2000: Bush by 5.7 percentTotal Electors: 10
State: Michigan
Latest poll (EPIC/MRA, 10/18-21): Bush 43%, Kerry 49%
Visits since March 3: Bush 8, Kerry 6Who won in 2000: Gore by 5.1 percentTotal Electors: 17
State: West Virginia
Latest poll (Mason-Dixon, 10/15-18): Bush 49%, Kerry 44%
Visits since March 3: Bush 8, Kerry 6Who won in 2000: Bush by 6.3 percentTotal Electors: 5
Poll information courtesy of Realclearpolitics.com