This is the repository of a Statistical Consulting project within M.Sc. Statistics program of LMU Munich

Project Members:
Daniel Seussler, M.Sc. Statistics candidate, LMU Munich
daniel.seussler@campus.lmu.de
Dennis Klein, M.Sc. Economics candidate, LMU Munich
dennis.klein@campus.lmu.de

Topic provided by Prof. Dr. Göran Kauermann (Institute for Statistics, LMU), in Collaboration with Prof. Dr. Paul W. Thurner (Institute for Political Science, GSI-LMU); supervised by Cornelius Fritz and Dr. Marius Mehrl.

Project Presentation

Date, Time: 12.05.2022, 17:30 (LMU Munich, Department of Statistics)

Submission

Date: 23.05.2022 (Please find the report in the above directory)

Abstract

Researchers repeatedly claim that alliances lead to an intensification of trade and service flows. However, formal alliances tend to be the exception in international relations. In contrast, arms trade networks can be conceptualized as relationships that are likewise based to a large extent on trust. The question then arises whether such networks induce trade and service flows to the same extent, which is the respective sequential dynamics, and to what extent such relationships are conflict mitigating and stabilizing. Based on data from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) and the Centre d'Études Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales (CEPII) we study the interlinkages of conventional trade networks and flows of Major Conventional Weapons (MCWs). The data shows both temporal-spatial dependencies as well as network structures, which necessitate the use of inferential network analysis. To adequately model the co-evolution and cross-network interdependence of the two networks, we employ novel methods for networks with multiple layers, in both cross-sectional and longitudinal analyses.