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Estimates of ozone depletion and skin cancer incidence to examine the Vienna Convention achievements

Nature volume 384, pages 256–258 (1996)Cite this article

Abstract

DEPLETION of the ozone layer has been observed on a global scale1, and is probably related to halocarbon emissions. Ozone depletion increases the biologically harmful solar ultraviolet radiation reaching the surface of the Earth, which leads to a variety of adverse effects, including an increase in the incidence of skin cancer. The 1985 Vienna Convention provided the framework for international restrictions on the production of ozone-depleting substances. The consequences of such restrictions have not yet been assessed in terms of effects avoided. Here we present a new method of estimating future excess skin cancer risks which is used to compare effects of a 'no restrictions' scenario with two restrictive scenarios specified under the Vienna Convention: the Montreal Protocol, and the much stricter Copenhagen Amendments. The no-restrictions and Montreal Protocol scenarios produce a runaway increase in skin cancer incidence, up to a quadrupling and doubling, respectively, by the year 2100. The Copenhagen Amendments scenario leads to an ozone minimum around the year 2000, and a peak relative increase in incidence of skin cancer of almost 10% occurring 60 years later. These results demonstrate the importance of the international measures agreed upon under the Vienna Convention.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Laboratory of Radiation Research, National Institute of Public Health and the Environment (RIVM), PO Box 1, 3720 BA, Bilthoven, The Netherlands

    Harry Slaper

  2. Air Research Laboratory, National Institute of Public Health and the Environment (RIVM), PO Box 1, 3720 BA, Bilthoven, The Netherlands

    Guus J. M. Velders

  3. Aeronomy Laboratory, NOAA, Boulder, Colorado, 80303, USA

    John S. Daniel

  4. Institute of Dermatology, Utrecht University, PO Box 85500, 3508 GA, Utrecht, The Netherlands

    Frank R. de Gruijl & Jan C. van der Leun

  5. Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Science, University Colorado, Colorado, USA

    John S. Daniel

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  1. Harry Slaper
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  2. Guus J. M. Velders
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  3. John S. Daniel
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  4. Frank R. de Gruijl
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  5. Jan C. van der Leun
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Slaper, H., Velders, G., Daniel, J. et al. Estimates of ozone depletion and skin cancer incidence to examine the Vienna Convention achievements. Nature 384, 256–258 (1996). https://doi.org/10.1038/384256a0

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