Most registered voters believe the economy is not doing well and neither candidate for president is particularly trusted to handle economic issues.  Voters are split on whether former President Donald Trump or Vice President Kamala Harris is better able to handle unemployment, the cost of groceries and housing, or tariffs.

Only 38% of registered voters think the national economy is doing well, while 62% say it is in poor condition.

The views of the national economy among all adults are very similar to those of registered voters. While their view of the economy remains negative, there are signs of improvement.  In October 2022 and October 2023, about three-quarters of adults thought it was in bad shape. 

The rosier perceptions are driven by Democrats. About 6 in 10 Democrats now say the economy is good, up from less than half last year.  Large majorities of Republicans say it’s not doing well.

Registered voters are divided on whether they trust Harris or Trump to handle many issues, including specific economic issues like prices and unemployment. 

Trump’s most consistent advantage continues to be immigration, where he has an 8-percentage point advantage over Harris among registered voters. Harris does best on climate change, abortion policy, and election integrity, where she maintains an advantage of at least 20 percentage points among voters.

Not surprisingly, Democratic voters overwhelmingly trust Harris to handle most issues, while a large majority of Republican voters have faith in Trump’s ability to deal with the issues.

Registered voters’ opinions of the candidates have not changed much since last month. In general Harris and her running mate, Tim Walz, are viewed more positively than Trump or JD Vance. A large majority of Democratic voters have positive views of Harris and Walz, and Republican voters feel favorably toward Trump and Vance.  Independent voters are closely divided in their opinion of Harris while most have a negative view of Trump.  Independent voters have similar opinions about both vice-presidential candidates. 

Forty-two percent of registered voters approve of how President Biden is handling his job and 58% disapprove.  There has not been much change in Biden’s job approval with the public over the past two years.  Seventy-five percent of Democratic voters approve of Biden’s job performance, while 95% of Republican voters and 66% of independent voters disapprove. 

Registered voters continue to see the country as heading in the wrong direction.  Overall, only 32% think the country is moving in the right direction while 68% say it is headed in the wrong direction. Fifty-four percent of Democratic voters feel things are going in the right direction, compared with 90% of Republican voters and 79% of independent voters who say the country is headed in the wrong direction. 

The nationwide poll was conducted October 11-14, 2024 using the AmeriSpeak® Panel, the probability-based panel of NORC at the University of Chicago. Online and telephone interviews using landlines and cell phones were conducted with 1,072 adults, including 957 self-reported registered voters. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.0 percentage points for all respondents and +/- 4.2 percentage points for registered voters.

• Suggested Citation: AP-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research. (October 2024). Registered voters are split on trusting Harris or Trump to handle economic issues.

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Public support for student loan forgiveness varies slightly based on the reasons for the relief, and there are significant differences in attitudes related to people’s partisanship and experience with student debt, according to a new UChicago Harris/AP-NORC Poll.

Fewer adults say it is extremely or very important for the federal government to forgive student loan debt (39%) than medical debt (51%). Less than a third of the public approve of how student loan debt is being handled by President Biden (30%), the Democratic Party (28%), the Republican Party (21%), or the Supreme Court (15%).

In April, the Biden-Harris administration announced its latest iteration of student debt forgiveness policy through the Higher Education Act. Existing programs offer forgiveness for borrowers working in public service for 10 years, those who were defrauded by colleges they attended, and borrowers paying for 20 to 25 years on repayment plans. The new policy would include debt relief for borrowers who now owe more than originally borrowed due to accruing interest, who enrolled in low-financial-value programs, or face financial hardship that would prevent them from repaying student loans.

The survey finds the public is more likely to support than oppose forgiveness of some or all of a student loan if the borrower was defrauded or misled by their school, (54% vs. 18%), has made on-time payments for 20 years (49% vs. 23%), has accrued more interest than originally borrowed (44% vs. 26%), went to an institution that left them with a large amount of debt compared to their income (41% vs. 29%), or is experiencing financial hardship (41% vs. 28%). Sixty-five percent of the public favor student debt forgiveness in at least one of the circumstances asked on the survey.

Experience with student debt relates to attitudes toward forgiveness. Those who are currently paying student loans (54%) are more likely than respondents who have paid off loans (31%) or have no experience with student debt (34%) to consider student debt relief from the federal government important.

There are also significant partisan differences. Fifty-eight percent of Democrats find student loan forgiveness important, compared with 44% of independents and just 15% of Republicans.

Democrats are also more likely than independents or Republicans to favor debt forgiveness under the circumstances outlined in the Biden-Harris administration plan, such as eliminating debt due to runaway interest (62% vs. 37% and 27%), debt forgiveness for borrowers who entered repayment over 20 years ago (65% vs. 44% and 34%), and relief for borrowers who went to institutions that left them with large debt to income ratios (59% vs. 38% and 22%).

Among both Democrats and Republicans, views on student debt relief vary based on education but having a college degree has differing effects among Democrats and Republicans. Democrats with a college degree are more likely than those without a college degree to favor student loan forgiveness if the borrower is experiencing financial hardship, (68% vs. 53%), went to an institution that left them with a large debt to income ratio (66% vs. 53%), or have accrued more interest than the amount originally borrowed (74% vs. 54%).

In contrast, Republicans with a college degree are more likely than Republicans without a college degree to oppose student loan forgiveness if the borrower is experiencing financial hardship, (66% vs. 45%), went to an institution that left them with a large debt to income ratio (64% vs. 44%), or have accrued more interest than the amount originally borrowed (55% vs. 39%).

In contrast, Republicans with a college degree are more likely than Republicans without a college degree to oppose student loan forgiveness if the borrower is experiencing financial hardship, (66% vs. 45%), went to an institution that left them with a large debt to income ratio (64% vs. 44%), or have accrued more interest than the amount originally borrowed (55% vs. 39%).

The nationwide poll was conducted by the University of Chicago Harris School of Public Policy and The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research from May 16 to May 21, 2024, using AmeriSpeak®, the probability-based panel of NORC at the University of Chicago. Online and telephone interviews using landlines and cell phones were conducted with 1,309 adults. The margin of sampling error is +/-3.7 percentage points.

• Suggested Citation: AP-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research. (June 2024). “Views toward student loan relief are tied to partisanship and experience with debt” https://apnorc.org/projects/views-toward-student-loan-relief-are-tied-to-partisanship-and-experience-with-debt/

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Earlier this month, the men’s basketball team at Dartmouth College voted to unionize. Fifty-five percent of adults oppose the unionization of college athletes, while 42% agree they should be allowed to form unions.

The National Labor Relations Board ruled that student athletes can be considered employees of the school, and players who are not attending the school on an athletic scholarship should be able to negotiate over salary and working conditions, including practice hours and travel.

Democrats, younger adults ages 18-44, and non-white adults are more supportive of student athletes unionizing.

The public is also opposed to universities providing their student athletes with a salary, spending money, or reduced academic requirements. However there is more support for the players to share in the proceeds from broadcast rights. Fifty-three percent believe college athletes should be paid a portion of the revenue their universities receive from broadcast rights.

Adults who are against the unionization of student athletes are more likely than those who approve of it to oppose giving college athletes a portion of broadcast revenue (58% vs. 26%), additional spending money (64% vs. 43%), or a salary (79% vs. 35%).

Only 2 in 10 adults think colleges should provide their student athletes with exemptions from certain academic requirements.

Few adults have an opinion either favorable (14%) or unfavorable (18%) of the NCAA. Most say they don’t know enough about the organization that regulates collegiate athletics to have an opinion (46%) or have neither a favorable nor unfavorable view (23%).

The nationwide poll was conducted February 22-26, 2024 using the AmeriSpeak® Panel, the probability-based panel of NORC at the University of Chicago. Online and telephone interviews using landlines and cell phones were conducted with 1,102 adults. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.1 percentage points.

• Suggested Citation: AP-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research. (March 2024). “Opposition to unionization of college athletes” https://apnorc.org/projects/opposition-to-unionization-of-college-athletes

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Most adults have a negative opinion of President Biden’s mental fitness, job performance, and his handling of the economy.  Few think they and their families are better off than before Biden became president in 2021, and most say the national economy and country as a whole are worse off.

A majority of adults are concerned about both Biden’s and Donald Trump’s mental capability to serve effectively as president. Only 40% of Democrats are extremely or very confident in Biden’s mental fitness. By contrast, 59% of Republicans have confidence in Trump. Independents are lacking confidence in both candidates, though they are more likely to have confidence in Trump’s mental capability compared with Biden’s (20% vs 6%).  

More people say life for their family, the country, and the national economy have gotten worse while Biden has been in office than say it has gotten better. Most Democrats feel things have gotten better or at least not changed, though about 1 in 4 feel the country as a whole and the economy are worse off than before Biden took office.

Those without a college degree are more pessimistic. For example, among college graduates, 44% say the country has gotten worse during the Biden Administration compared with 61% of people without a college degree. 

Only 30% describe the economy as good while 69% say it is poor. Even among Democrats, 49% say it is poor. Adults feel more confident about their personal finances – 54% describe them as good. Two-thirds of Democrats (64%) and half of Republicans (47%) rate their own personal finances as good.

Biden has a negative approval rating across most aspects of his job performance. While a majority of Democrats approve of Biden’s performance across most issues, 54% disapprove of his handling of the Israel/Palestine conflict.

Overall, the public does not have overwhelming confidence in Biden’s ability to meet important policy goals as president. About a quarter of the public has a great deal of confidence that Biden can effectively handle a crisis and another quarter are somewhat confident, but half have hardly any confidence.

About four in ten adults have a favorable opinion of Biden, Kamala Harris, and Trump.

Four in five adults (77%) think the country is headed in the wrong direction while one in five think it is going the right way. Sixty-two percent of Democrats and 89% of Republicans think the country is headed in the wrong direction.

The nationwide poll was conducted February 22-26, 2024 using the AmeriSpeak® Panel, the probability-based panel of NORC at the University of Chicago. Online and telephone interviews using landlines and cell phones were conducted with 1,102 adults. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.1 percentage points.

• Suggested Citation: AP-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research. (March 2024). https://apnorc.org/projects/many-are-concerned-about-bidens-mental-fitness-and-job-performance/

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Most adults still consider the national economy to be in poor shape, but there has been a slight increase in those who have a positive opinion. However, this improvement in the view of the economy has not translated into an improvement in President Biden’s approval ratings.

Thirty-five percent say the national economy is good, up slightly from 30% in an AP-NORC poll conducted in December and 24% in January 2023. The economy is seen as poor by 65%, down from 69% in December and 76% a year ago. Both Democrats and Republicans are more likely to describe the economy as good compared with last January. But, while 58% of Democrats now have a positive opinion of the economy, only 15% of Republicans agree. 

Thirty-eight percent approve of Biden’s job performance, including 70% of Democrats and just 7% of Republicans. The public has similar opinions about how the president is handling foreign policy in general, and specifically relations with China, as well as the economy.

Biden’s approval on both his overall job as president and his handling of the economy are similar to the last several months, with his rating on the economy remaining below 40%.  

While Democrats overall have positive views of Biden, Democrats ages 18 to 39 are much more negative than older Democrats.

The nationwide poll was conducted January 25-29, 2024 using the AmeriSpeak® Panel, the probability-based panel of NORC at the University of Chicago. Online and telephone interviews using landlines and cell phones were conducted with 1,152 adults. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.0 percentage points.

• Suggested Citation: AP-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research. (January 2024). “Despite improved views of the economy, Biden’s ratings are unchanged.” https://apnorc.org/despite-improved-views-of-the-economy-bidens-ratings-are-unchanged

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Two-thirds of Asian American and Pacific Islander adults are feeling the strain of increased expenses.

Despite promising economic reports from the Federal Reserve, just 30% of Asian American, Native Hawaiian and Pacific Islander (AAPI) adults are very confident in their ability to keep up with their expenses according to a new AAPI Data/AP-NORC Center poll. Fully 23% have little or no confidence. About a quarter are confident in their ability to cover an unexpected medical bill (26%) or have enough retirement savings (22%). Even fewer are confident about finding a job if they want to change roles (19%). Similar shares of all U.S. adults lacked confidence in October 2023 when these questions were last put to the general population.

The survey also reveals that 2 in 3 AAPI adults have seen their household expenses increase in the past year, while nearly half (44%) reported their savings have decreased. Nearly a third held off on a major purchase in the last year due to higher interest rates, matching the share of all U.S adults (31%) who said the same.

A greater share of AAPI adults believes the economy in the United States is at least somewhat good (35%), compared to 30% of U.S. adults. Still, nearly two-thirds (65%) describe it as poor. Sixty-two percent describe their own financial situation as good. Democrats are more likely than Republicans to be optimistic on both fronts.

Overall, AAPI communities are less pessimistic than the general public about the way things are going in the country overall (45% and 55%), the national economy (42% and 54%), and that their personal finances are unlikely to improve in the next year (20% and 25%).

Most AAPI adults disapprove of President Biden’s handling of inflation (67%), the economy (58%), and student debt (54%), while a majority approve of his handling of jobs (55%). The general public is more negative about Biden’s approach to the economy (65%), but just about the same as AAPI communities regarding student debt (58%).

On foreign policy issues, about half of AAPI adults believe that the United States is not supportive enough of Palestinians in the conflict with Israelis, with a nearly identical share thinking the United States is too supportive of Israelis. Forty-five percent of AAPI adults believe the United States is not supportive enough of Muslim communities in the United States, but just 26% say the same about the country’s Jewish communities.

Forty percent across AAPI communities consider Israel a partner to cooperate with yet believe the country does not share U.S. interests and values, while 36% consider it an ally that shares U.S. interests. Few perceive it as a rival (11%) or an adversary (10%). Similar shares of all U.S. adults said the same in November 2023, the last time the question was asked of the general population.

About half of AAPI adults view India as primarily a U.S. partner that does not share U.S. interests and values, but most say Japan is an ally that does share U.S. interests and values. About a third of AAPI adults see China as either a rival or an adversary and a quarter consider it a partner of the United States.

AAPI adults aged 60 and older are more likely to view Israel as an ally than all of their younger AAPI counterparts (50% vs. 32%). They are also more likely than AAPI adults under 30 to see Japan as an ally (66% vs. 41%) and regard China as an adversary (43% vs. 21%).

The nationwide study was conducted by The AP-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research and AAPI Data from December 4–11, 2023, using the Amplify AAPI Monthly survey drawing from NORC’s Amplify AAPI® Panel designed to be representative of the U.S. Asian American, Native Hawaiian, and Pacific Islander household population. Online and telephone interviews were offered in English, the Chinese dialects of Mandarin and Cantonese, Vietnamese, and Korean with 1,091 Asian American, Native Hawaiian, and Pacific Islanders aged 18 and older living in the United States. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points.

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The public tends to have similar opinions of sales, property, and income taxes, and attitudes toward these taxes are closely tied to political partisanship, according to new UChicago Harris/AP-NORC Poll. 

About two-thirds of people consider their federal income tax (67%), state sales tax (62%), and local property tax (69%) to be too high. Most believe that middle income earners have the heaviest tax burden compared with those in higher or lower income groups.

Most adults say federal income tax (60%) and local property tax (59%) are unfair while about 4 in 10 say each tax is fair. Democrats are more likely than Republicans to see taxes as fair, and Republicans are more likely to say their taxes are too high.

About a third of adults say they are receiving poor value from the taxes they pay, while less than a quarter believe they receive good value from paying these taxes.

Most people lack confidence in the way taxes are spent by the federal government (66%) or state governments (58%). People are more likely to express at least some confidence in local governments (49%) or local school districts (53%) to spend their tax dollars wisely.

Democrats generally trust the government to spend tax money for the benefit of people like them and are open to higher taxes for more services. In contrast, Republicans are more skeptical of government spending, expressing a preference for lower taxes with fewer services.

Attitudes toward income, property, or sales taxes tend to be more closely associated with partisanship than other demographic characteristics such as age, education, or income. 

The nationwide poll was conducted by the University of Chicago Harris School of Public Policy and The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research from December 14 to 18, 2023, using AmeriSpeak®, the probability-based panel of NORC at the University of Chicago. Online and telephone interviews using landlines and cell phones were conducted with 1,024 adults. The margin of sampling error is +/-4.2 percentage points.

• Suggested Citation: AP-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research. (January, 2024). “Majorities view local, state, and federal taxes as too high and delivering too little value for people like them” https://apnorc.org/majorities-view-local-state-and-federal-taxes-as-too-high-and-delivering-too-little-value-for-people-like-them

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Confidence in U.S. democracy remains low. Most of the public think democracy could be at risk depending on who wins the presidential election next year, including majorities of both Democrats and Republicans.

The public has lacked confidence how democracy is working for several years. Fifty-one percent say it’s not working well, 40% think it is working somewhat well, and just 8% feel it’s working very or extremely well. These results were similar when the question was asked previously, including October 2022, when 9% said democracy is working very or extremely well and October 2020, when 14% said it was working well.

People feel the stakes are high for the next election. Sixty-two percent of adults think democracy could be at risk depending on who wins the presidency in November. About equal shares feel democracy is already so broken that the election doesn’t matter (19%) and that democracy is strong enough to withstand the outcome (18%).

Fifty-five percent of Republicans think democracy could be at risk depending on the 2024 winner, as do 72% of Democrats.  Republicans are more likely to think democracy is already broken than Democrats (23% vs. 10%).

Partisans on both sides feel that each party’s front-runner poses a risk to the health of the democracy. Eighty-seven percent of Democrats believe that if Trump is elected again in 2024 he will weaken democracy, and 82% of Republicans say the same about Biden.  However, Republicans are more likely to believe that if Trump wins reelection in 2024, democracy would be strengthened compared with Democrats’ view of a Biden reelection.

People think the outcome of the 2024 election will have serious stakes for a range of issues as well. Three quarters of adults say the outcome of the election will be important for the economy, and about two-thirds think it will have important consequences for government spending, the future of democracy in the U.S., and immigration.  

Democrats are more likely than Republicans to regard the 2024 election as extremely or very important to the future of climate change (65% vs. 24%), issues around race and ethnicity (64% vs. 33%), abortion policy (76% vs. 47%), the future of democracy (76% vs. 61%), health care (67% vs. 55%), and gun policy (62% vs. 51%). Republicans are more likely compared with Democrats to expect the election to have an important impact on border security (78% vs. 53%), crime (68% vs. 47%), government spending (77% vs. 63%), immigration (76% vs. 63%), and the economy (82% vs. 73%).

The nationwide poll was conducted November 30-December 4, 2023 using the AmeriSpeak® Panel, the probability-based panel of NORC at the University of Chicago. Online and telephone interviews using landlines and cell phones were conducted with 1,074 adults. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.0 percentage points.

• Citation: AP-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research. (December 2023). “Widespread feeling that the 2024 presidential election carries serious stakes for the country.” https://apnorc.org/projects/widespread-feeling-that-the-2024-presidential-election-carries-serious-stakes-for-the-country/

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About two-thirds of adults say their household expenses have risen over the last year, but only about a quarter have also seen their income increase during the same period. Seventy-three percent describe the national economy as poor.

Few adults have been able to contribute more toward their savings over the last year and most say household debt is either rising or not going away.

People are far more likely to say that their household expenses and debt have increased compared to income or savings. Half the public says their household savings decreased over the last year.

Still, about half of adults say their financial situation is good even when citing certain drawbacks. However, that varies based on household income. Sixty-nine percent of people in households with incomes over $100,000 per year report being in good financial health compared to 38% for people in households making under $50,000.

Nearly half of adults are not confident they will have enough savings for retirement, but most are at least somewhat confident they can keep up with their expenses, pay an unexpected medical expense, or find a good job.

Among those who are retired, 30% are very confident they have saved enough for their retirement, 38% are somewhat confident, and 31% are not very confident or not confident at all.

People with higher household incomes are more likely to have greater confidence in having enough savings for retirement, keeping up with expenses, paying an unexpected medical expense, and finding a good job.

While half face credit card debt and 40% have auto loans, fewer have student loans or medical debt.  Thirty-one percent say they have had to forego a major purchase due to higher interest rates.

Affluent people are more likely to have auto loans but less likely to have medical debt. Though they are just as likely as lower-income households to be carrying credit card and student loan debt.

Overall, 23% of adults have student loans, though younger adults are more likely to hold that type of debt. Thirty-six percent of 18- to 44-year-olds have student debt, compared to 12% of people who are 45 and older.

Forty-one percent of adults approve of how President Biden is handling student loans. Among people with student debt, 50% approve of how Biden is dealing with the issue compared with 39% of adults without any student loans. While 69% of Democrats approve of Biden’s handling of student debt, only 14% of Republicans agree.

The vast majority continue to describe the national economy as poor.

Democrats are more likely than Republicans to describe the economy as good. Those who describe their personal financial situation positively are more likely than those who say their finances are in bad shape to consider the national economy as good.

Partisan views are more commonly expressed by individuals in favorable financial situations. Among Republicans, 82% percent who feel their personal financial situation is good view the economy poorly, while only 38% of Democrats with good personal finances share this view. Yet the gap between Republicans and Democrats shrinks among those who rate their personal finances negatively. Among those in more financially challenging situations, 83% of Democrats say the national economy is in bad shape as do 97% of Republicans.

Sixty-seven percent disapprove of the way Biden is handling the economy, including 92% of Republicans and 37% of Democrats.

However, adults are split on which party they trust more to do a better job of handling inflation. Democrats and Republicans are each more likely to trust their own party.

The nationwide poll was conducted October 5-9, 2023 using the AmeriSpeak® Panel, the probability-based panel of NORC at the University of Chicago. Online and telephone interviews using landlines and cell phones were conducted with 1,163 adults. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3.9 percentage points.

Suggested Citation: AP-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research. (October 2023). “Many are uncertain about their financial futures as household expenses outpace earnings” https://apnorc.org/projects/many-are-uncertain-about-their-financial-futures-as-household-expenses-outpace-earnings/

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Many adults sympathize with the United Auto Workers who are striking against large automakers and a majority endorse their demand for higher pay. Half the public believes labor unions benefit U.S. workers generally, while a third think they help the overall U.S. economy. Opinions are divided over their impact on U.S. businesses.

The public leans towards trusting Democrats over Republicans on American workers’ issues. However, they are more inclined to disapprove than approve of both President Biden and Donald Trump’s handling of the labor dispute.

Few adults are more sympathetic to the automakers than the striking workers. Thirty-six percent sympathize with striking autoworkers, 26% are sympathetic toward both sides, and 27% sympathize with neither side. Only 9% sympathize more with the automakers. There is more support for the UAW from Democrats than Republicans or independents.

Most Americans see labor unions as organizations that do more to help than hurt U.S. workers, but they are less likely to say unions help the U.S. economy as a whole or U.S. businesses. 

Most agree that higher wages for autoworkers would be a good thing. About a third support a four-day work week for these union members and mandating the use of union labor for electric vehicles and their parts.

Democrats are more likely than Republicans to say all the union demands would be a good thing.  Eighty percent of Democrats support a pay hike for autoworkers compared with 45% of Republicans. Democrats are also more likely than Republicans to favor a four-day work week (49% vs 28%), requiring union labor for electric vehicle production (48% vs 23%), and limiting the use of temporary workers (36% vs 24%).

The nationwide poll was conducted October 5-9, 2023 using the AmeriSpeak® Panel, the probability-based panel of NORC at the University of Chicago. Online and telephone interviews using landlines and cell phones were conducted with 1,163 adults. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3.9 percentage points.

• Citation: AP-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research. (October 2023). “Many support the UAW strike against the automakers” https://apnorc.org/projects/many-support-the-uaw-strike-against-the-automakers/

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