From designing the economic development blueprint in North Korea to advancing global citizenship in America, Krishna has forged a reputable career in research and global affairs. In his work with Syrian refugees, he and his team uncovered mutually beneficial opportunities for the refugees and host countries in the Middle East. Krishna has studied informal labor markets in Bangladesh, developed a comprehensive model of U.S. labor market inequality, and calculated the gross regional product of the Kurdistan Region–Iraq. Additionally, he worked to implement a labor force survey to collect data for the Kurdistan Regional Government to understand the region’s unemployment rate and develop a data collection system. 

Krishna conducted a randomized control trial evaluation of an agricultural training program in China to improve farmer decisions and evaluated the socioeconomic impact on the working poor of moving into permanent housing in India. He also studied the effect of U.S. federal funding of life sciences research on university R&D and commercialization, the role of economic and social policies in Mexico’s development, and public policy on Indian entrepreneurship, and conducted a comparative analysis of the Indian and Chinese education systems. 

Krishna comes to NORC from the RAND Corporation, where, as a senior economist, he served as a vice president, International, and the distinguished chair in International Economic Policy. He’s also a teacher and mentor and has served as a professor at the Pardee RAND Graduate School, where he taught economic development.   

While Krishna has an impressive CV, notably a wide range of labor and economic development projects spanning multiple countries from Bangladesh to the United States, what drives him is a focus on finding new and better ways to improve the lives of the eight billion people on our interconnected planet.  

Krishna’s research has been published in leading peer-reviewed journals focusing on economic growth and development and macroeconomics.

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October 19, 2022

WASHINGTON (AP) — Many Americans remain pessimistic about the state of U.S. democracy and the way elected officials are chosen — nearly two years after a divisive presidential election spurred false claims of widespread fraud and a violent attack on the U.S. Capitol.

Only about half of Americans have high confidence that votes in the upcoming midterm elections will be counted accurately, according to a new poll by The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research, though that’s an improvement from about 4 in 10 saying that just before the 2020 presidential election. Just 9% of U.S. adults think democracy is working “extremely” or “very well,” while 52% say it’s not working well.

In a reversal from two years ago, Republicans are now more likely than Democrats to say democracy is not working well. This year, 68% of Republicans feel this way compared with 32% two years ago. The share of Democrats with a sour outlook on how democracy is functioning in the U.S. dropped from 63% to 40%.

Ronald McGraw Sr., 67, of Indianapolis, is a retired construction worker who recently registered to vote and intends to cast a ballot for the first time this year.

“I thought I’d let everybody else put their vote in and just go with the flow, but this whole thing is at stake now,” he said, referring to democracy, the economy, ”everything, how the whole country runs.”

McGraw, who is Black and considers himself a moderate, said a big concern is the political turmoil in the country and the fact that he sees too many self-serving politicians concerned with power, especially those who work against the interest of minorities. He said he registered as a Republican but did not give any thought to party platforms or stances at the time.

“I am paying attention now,” he said.

After every presidential election, members of the losing candidate’s party can experience a letdown. The fallout from the 2020 election has been deeper, fueled by the lies from former President Donald Trump and his allies that Democrats stole the election.

There is no evidence of widespread fraud or manipulation of voting machines. Exhaustive reviews in key states upheld Democrat Joe Biden’s win, while judges — including some appointed by Trump — dismissed numerous lawsuits challenging the outcome. Trump’s own attorney general, William Barr, called the claims bogus.

The general despair over democracy comes after decades of increasing polarization nationwide, from the presidential and congressional races down to local contests such as races for school boards.

Overall, just a quarter of U.S. adults — including similar percentages of Republicans and Democrats — say they are optimistic about the way leaders are chosen, while 43% say they are pessimistic. An additional 31% feel neither.

Adam Coykendall, a 31-year-old social studies teacher from Ashland, Wisconsin, said he sees party loyalties driving lawmakers more than the good of the country.

“I feel like everything is becoming a little more divisive, a little more polarized, more focused on party loyalty … rather than working for your constituency, having things that work for people rather than working for the party,” said Coykendall, who described himself as an independent who leans toward the Democratic Party.

The AP-NORC poll also found a large segment of Republicans, 58%, still believe Biden’s election wasn’t legitimate. That’s down slightly from 66% in July 2021.

Gary Phelps, a 70-year-old retired truck driver in Clearwater, Minnesota, accepts Biden is president but doesn’t think he was legitimately elected. Phelps said he was concerned about voter fraud, mail ballots being received and counted after Election Day, and irregularities with some voting machines, although he acknowledged it’s based on his feeling rather than evidence.

Phelps remains concerned about the voting process and whether the tallies will be accurate. “I would hope so, but I don’t think so,” the Republican-leaning independent said.

The poll shows 47% of Americans say they have “a great deal” or “quite a bit” of confidence that the votes in the 2022 midterm elections will be counted accurately. Confidence is highest among Democrats, 74% of whom say they’re highly confident. On the Republican side, confidence in elections is decidedly mixed: 25% have high confidence, 30% have moderate confidence and 45% have little to no confidence.

That erosion of trust comes after two years of Trump and his allies promoting lies about the 2020 presidential election and peddling conspiracy theories about voting machines.

Narratives about mailed ballots mysteriously changing vote totals have been one persistent source of misinformation. To be clear, results announced on election night are unofficial and often incomplete. It’s normal for counting to continue several days after Election Day, as mailed ballots received by their deadline are processed and added to the tally.

In 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic led to a surge of mailed balloting as voters opted to avoid crowded polling stations. A large number of those ballots slowed down the results as local election offices worked through the steps to verify the ballots and ensure they matched registered voters.

In 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic led to a surge of mailed balloting as voters opted to avoid crowded polling stations. A large number of those ballots slowed down the results as local election offices worked through the steps to verify the ballots and ensure they matched registered voters.

Julie Duggan, a 31-year-old police officer from Chicago, is among the Republicans who does not believe Biden’s win was legitimate. She said watching his gaffes and missteps, it was impossible to believe he garnered enough support to win.

She is concerned about the country’s direction, citing inflation, illegal immigration, crime rates and a lack of respect for law enforcement.

“If we don’t get the right people in, we will be at the point of no return,” she said, adding she hopes elections will be run fairly but has her doubts. “My confidence has definitely been shaken.”

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The poll of 1,121 adults was conducted Oct. 6-10 using a sample drawn from NORC’s probability-based AmeriSpeak Panel, which is designed to be representative of the U.S. population. The margin of sampling error for all respondents is plus or minus 3.8 percentage points.

___

Cassidy reported from Atlanta. Associated Press writers Hannah Fingerhut in Washington and Nuha Dolby in New York contributed to this report.

___

Follow the AP’s coverage of the midterm elections at https://apnews.com/hub/2022-midterm-elections.

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December 8, 2022

WASHINGTON (AP) — Fresh off his party’s better-than-anticipated performance in the midterm elections, President Joe Biden is facing consistent but critical assessments of his leadership and the national economy.

A new poll from The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research finds 43% of U.S. adults say they approve of the way Biden is handling his job as president, while 55% disapprove. That’s similar to October, just weeks before the Nov. 8 elections that most Americans considered pivotal for the country’s future.

Only about a quarter say the nation is headed in the right direction or the economy is in good condition. Both measures have been largely negative over the course of the year as inflation tightened its grip, but were more positive through much of Biden’s first year in office.

Mishana Conlee said she tries to be optimistic about the coming year, but she thinks things are going to the gutter because “our president is incompetent” and not mentally fit for the White House. The 44-year-old in South Bend, Indiana, said she’s frustrated about rising expenses when she’s living paycheck to paycheck as a dietary aide at a nursing home.

“The more I work, I just can’t get ahead,” Conlee said. “That’s just all there is to it.”

She doesn’t blame Biden for the state of inflation, but “I feel like he’s not doing anything to change it,” said Conlee, an independent who voted for former President Donald Trump. Biden’s “not doing us any good.”

The Biden administration in its second year in the White House relished economic growth, a series of legislative wins and relative success for the president’s party in the midterms. But that has yet to translate to glowing reviews from a pessimistic public.

“I don’t understand why his approval ratings are so low,” said 56-year-old Sarah Apwisch, highlighting the administration’s investments in infrastructure and computer chip technology.

Apwisch recognizes that it’s been “a tough year” and that prices are higher, but she’s hopeful because of the midterm results as a Republican-turned-Democrat who worries about the “Make America Great Again” movement’s influence on the GOP.

“We’re headed in the right direction,” said the Three Rivers, Michigan, resident who works for a market research company’s finance department. She is eager to see Democrats press forward on a wide-ranging agenda, including codifying abortion rights.

Even as Republicans took control of the House, Democrats defied historical precedent to stunt GOP gains and even improve their Senate majority, which was cemented with this week’s runoff win for Sen. Raphael Warnock, the lone Democrat in Georgia this year to be elected statewide.

Glen McDaniel of Atlanta, who twice voted for Warnock, thinks the Biden administration has moved the country forward and weathered the economic storm as well as possible.

“I think that this administration has done as much as they can” to fight inflation, the Democrat said.

But McDaniel, a 70-year-old medical research scientist, also thinks the nation faces “social headwinds” that he wants Biden and the party to prioritize.

“I think that the Democrats can be a little bit more aggressive” in legislating on things like marriage equality, reproductive rights and voting reform, he said.

The poll shows majorities of Democrats and Republicans alike think things in the country are on the wrong track, likely for different reasons.

But Democrats have shown renewed faith in Biden, boosting his overall job approval rating from a summer slump. Even so, the 43% who approve in the new survey remains somewhat depressed from 48% a year ago and much lower than 60% nearly two years ago, a month after he took office.

Seventy-seven percent of Democrats, but only 10% of Republicans, approve of Biden.

While many Americans don’t entirely blame Biden for high inflation, AP-NORC polling this year showed Biden consistently hit for his handling of the economy.

As in recent months, the new poll shows only a quarter of U.S. adults say economic conditions are good, while three-quarters call them bad. Nine in 10 Republicans, along with about 6 in 10 Democrats, say the economy is in bad shape. Ratings of the economy have soured amid record-high inflation, even as Biden touts falling gas prices and a low unemployment rate at 3.7%.

Joshua Steffens doubts that the job market is as good as indicators show. The 47-year-old in St. Augustine, Florida, said he has been unemployed and struggling to find an information technology job since September.

“Even though they’re trying to claim that things are looking good,” Steffens said, “in the trenches, it definitely does not appear that it’s so accurate.”

Biden’s shopping and vacationing, captured on broadcast news, is “tone deaf,” said the Republican, who called the president “a habitual liar.”

Steffens said he and his wife are experiencing rising expenses for electricity and groceries, and relying on his wife’s income has “put a strain” on their holiday shopping. He doesn’t think Biden is handling high inflation well.

“If he has policies that he’s trying to push through, then they’re not working currently,” Steffens said.

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The poll of 1,124 adults was conducted Dec. 1-5 using a sample drawn from NORC’s probability-based AmeriSpeak Panel, which is designed to be representative of the U.S. population. The margin of sampling error for all respondents is plus or minus 3.8 percentage points.

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December 14, 2022

More than half of U.S. adults say it’s harder to afford the holiday gifts they want to give this year.

Sixty-nine percent of them say they have seen higher prices for holiday gifts in recent months, up from 58% last year, according to a new poll from The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research.

And 57% say it has been harder to afford the things they want to give, a dramatic increase from 40% one year ago. The vast majority of those finding it harder to afford gifts say they’ve cut back on giving as a result.

Last year, 89-year-old Darlene Huffman used some of her government stimulus money to buy KitchenAid food choppers — which cost around $40 — for her six children. But this year, with the price of gas, groceries and other basics eating into her limited income, Huffman is downsizing. She plans to buy them each a $10 trash can that attaches to the backseat of a car.

“I have to watch my p’s and q’s. But God has supplied all my needs and I’m not complaining,” said Huffman, who will spend much of the season volunteering at food and clothing banks in her hometown of Greenville, Ohio.

U.S. inflation appears to be cooling; consumer prices fell for the fifth straight month in November, the government said Tuesday. But prices were still 7.1% higher than a year earlier, an increase felt most acutely by low-income households.

About two-thirds of Americans in households earning less than $50,000 annually say they’ve had a harder time affording gifts and food for holiday meals this year, according to the AP-NORC poll. About 6 in 10 of those in households earning between $50,000 and $99,999 found it harder to afford gifts and food, along with half of higher-income households.

Roslyn Coble doesn’t plan to buy holiday gifts this year. Coble, 63, lives on monthly disability checks and has struggled with higher prices for food and other necessities this year.

“I’m less interested in going out and trying to buy things,” said Coble, of Oakboro, North Carolina. “I’m not as much into it this year.”

Coble is looking forward to spending the holidays with family. And she’s expecting a small raise in her disability payments in January.

“Next Christmas I’ll be able to do more,” she said.

The poll shows nearly all Americans — 95% — have seen higher-than-usual prices for groceries in recent months, up from 85% last year, according to the poll. The U.S. government estimates food prices will be up 9.5% to 10.5% this year; historically, they’ve risen only 2% annually.

Eighty-three percent said they had experienced inflationary gas prices, about the same number as last year. Seventy-four percent reported higher electricity bills, up from 57% last year.

As a result, many buyers may be looking for discounts this year, and retailers are likely to respond. The average discount rate across all categories online was 31% on Thanksgiving, up from 27% last year, according to Salesforce.

Tierra Tucker, a 34-year-old day care worker in Chicago, said she’s been shopping since Black Friday for her twin 13-year-old daughters and has found deals on many of the gifts they’re getting, including iPads, purses, clothes and bracelet-making kits.

Tucker hasn’t cut back on gifts for her daughters this year, but she won’t be spending as much on others. Tucker recently moved and said she has had to focus on getting things for her new house. So her seven nieces and nephews will get gift cards instead of toys.

Overall U.S. holiday sales are expected to grow at a slower pace than last year. The National Retail Federation, the largest retail trade group, expects holiday sales to grow 6% to 8% this year, down from 13.5% in 2021.

Daniel Reyes, a postal worker from Midland, Texas, said he made more money than usual this year thanks to overtime. But he’s still thinking twice about what be buys in the face of steep price increases and losses to his 401(k) plan.

“I do give it a beat. If I need it, I need it, so I will get it,” he said. “But some of the luxuries, like beer or wine, maybe I’m not going to buy because everything is more expensive.”

Reyes, 51, spent $1,200 last Christmas buying handguns for his two adult children. But this year he has already warned them not to expect high-end gifts.

“I’d rather spend $200 and buy steaks and all the fixings,” Reyes said. “We’ll make it more about family than about material items.”

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The poll of 1,124 adults was conducted Dec. 1-5 using a sample drawn from NORC’s probability-based AmeriSpeak Panel, which is designed to be representative of the U.S. population. The margin of sampling error for all respondents is plus or minus 3.8 percentage points.

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January 1, 2023

WASHINGTON (AP) — Eva Guzman’s expenses have swelled, but she feels comfortable financially thanks to the savings she and her late husband stockpiled for a rainy day. Nevertheless, the 80-year-old retired library clerk in San Antonio limits trips to the grocery store, adjusts the thermostat to save on utilities and tries to help her grandchildren and great-grandchildren get what they need.

It was difficult to raise her own four children, Guzman said, but she and her husband were able to manage. She doesn’t know how young families today stay financially afloat with such high prices for groceries and clothes.

“It’s really gotten worse in this age for a lot of people,” said Guzman, who identifies as a conservative and blames President Joe Biden for inflation and economic instability. “It’s really getting out of hand.”

Like Guzman, 30% of people in the United States consider inflation a high priority for the country, named in an open-ended question as one of up to five issues for the government to work on in 2023, according to a December poll from The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research. That’s roughly twice the percentage as a year ago, though down from 40% in June, with inflation easing somewhat despite remaining high.

Overall, the economy in general remains a bipartisan issue, mentioned by most U.S. adults across party lines. But the poll finds Republicans and Democrats have sharply distinct views of priorities for the country in the new year. More Republicans than Democrats name inflation, gas and food prices, energy and immigration, while Democrats focus on health care, climate change, poverty, racism, abortion and women’s rights.

Elizabeth Stephens, a 41-year-old Democratic-leaning independent in Houston, recognizes that inflation is an issue right now. But she thinks there are other problems that the government should focus on addressing.

“Inflation comes and goes,” said Stephens, a manager working in learning and development. But issues such as poverty and health care disparities, she said, “are always there.”

“Even if the economy is great, there are still people who are suffering,” Stephens added.

There is broad skepticism from members of both parties that progress will be made on the issues about which the public most cares. In the poll results and in interviews with the AP, many people cite hostile political divisions as part of the problem.

Stephens said the country is so divided that “it seems close to impossible” to imagine there would be progress this year.

Glenn Murray, a 59-year-old in Little Mountain, South Carolina, also called out the distance between the left and the right, wishing that politicians would recognize the “truth in the middle.” But his priorities are different from Stephens’.

Murray, a moderate Republican, thinks inflation and the economy are critical issues and he worries that the U.S. will soon face a recession. But he is also concerned about energy policy, suggesting the nation’s reliance on foreign oil is driving up gas prices, and he describes the surge of migrants at the U.S.-Mexico border as “unsustainable.”

“I definitely understand that immigration is what helped build this country … but you have to have guardrails,” said Murray, who works for a university’s audit services. “You just can’t open the gates and let everyone in that wants to come in.”

Named by 45% of Republicans, immigration is one of the GOP’s leading priorities. The Supreme Court recently extended Trump-era pandemic restrictions on people seeking asylum, as thousands of migrants gathered on the Mexico side of the border seeking to the enter the United States.

Roughly 2 in 10 Republicans also name crime, foreign policy issues, energy and health care. Republicans are more likely than Democrats to specifically name inflation, 37% vs. 26%, and gas prices, 22% vs. 7%.

Among Democrats, about 4 in 10 rank climate change and health care, 3 in 10 prioritize gun issues and roughly one-quarter name education and abortion or women’s rights. Roughly 2 in 10 Democrats name racism and poverty.

For 24-year-old Osbaldo Cruz, the country’s minimum wage is insufficient, especially to keep up with high inflation. But the Democrat, who works as an assistant manager at a fast-food restaurant, equally prioritizes climate change and gun policy, issues that have been close to his home in Las Vegas.

Seeing record temperatures and increasing waste, Cruz worries that conditions on Earth won’t be livable in the future. “People pretty much think short term, so we never take the time to invest in proper long-term solutions,” he said.

And while he said he understands the importance of the right to bear arms, he’s concerned with how easy it is for people to get a gun.

Joseph Wiseman, a 52-year-old Presbyterian pastor in Wichita, Kansas, wants the country to prioritize protections for women’s health care, including access to abortion after the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade, and LGBTQ individuals.

“I’m very concerned that basic human rights are under threat,” he said. “The blatant politicization of the Supreme Court and the handing down of that ruling really brought home in stark circumstance how deadly important this is for the livelihood of 51% of God’s children.”

Wiseman was a lifelong Republican up until the past few years, registering instead as a Democrat. He said he worries about the “dangerous” shift toward authoritarianism and Christian nationalism happening in the country, especially within the GOP.

Still, he said he has to be hopeful.

“I have to be optimistic that the threat will be met and that basic human rights can be secured for all,” Wiseman said.

Most of those surveyed say the opposite. About three-quarters of U.S. adults say they are not confident in the ability of the federal government to make progress on the important problems facing the country in 2023, according to the poll.

About one-third of Republicans and Democrats name the state of politics as a critical issue facing the country.

Michael Holcomb, a 35-year-old audio technician in Los Angeles, wants less polarization in the election process, which he thinks leads politicians to be more extreme. But he sees the issue as extending beyond politics.

“I think that it’s more of a cultural problem,” the independent said. “We all have to figure out a way to get past it.”

___

The poll of 1,124 adults was conducted Dec. 1-5 using a sample drawn from NORC’s probability-based AmeriSpeak Panel, which is designed to be representative of the U.S. population. The margin of sampling error for all respondents is plus or minus 3.8 percentage points.

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February 2, 2023

WASHINGTON (AP) — More U.S. adults disapprove than approve of the way President Joe Biden has handled the discovery of classified documents at his home and former office, a new poll shows, but that seems to have had little impact on his overall approval rating.

The new poll from The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research finds 41% of Americans say they approve of how Biden is handling his job as president, about the same as the 43% who said that in December. In the new poll, 77% of Democrats approve of how Biden is handling his job, while 91% of Republicans disapprove, both little changed since late last year.

Biden, who will address a joint session of Congress in his State of the Union address next week, needs all the support he can muster as he strategizes his expected reelection campaign, and has been working to focus voters on his agenda and big legislative wins instead of the documents flap.

Biden’s attorneys discovered classified items in a locked closet in November, as they cleared out his office at the Penn Biden Center, a think tank where he briefly worked after he left government. The records were turned over to Justice Department officials. The discovery touched off a special counsel investigation and additional documents have turned up at his home in Wilmington, Delaware, in searches by his lawyers and by the FBI. Agents also searched Biden’s vacation home in Rehoboth Beach, Delaware, and his former office at the Penn Biden Center.

More people disapprove than approve of his handling of situation since the classified documents were found, 39% to 23%, Another 36% say they neither approve nor disapprove. Democrats are more likely to approve than disapprove, 44% to 15%, with 40% saying they have no opinion either way.

A majority of Republicans, 68%, say they disapprove, with 6% saying they approve and 24% expressing no opinion either way. Republicans are also somewhat more likely than Democrats to say they’ve heard at least some about the situation, 71% to 63%.

“To me, it seems like he’s doing the right things, and this happens, people have these documents, Trump and now Mike Pence, too,” said Candace Porth, 72, of Phoenix, a Biden supporter. “It happens. I think people who are supportive of Biden, they understand.”

In follow-up interviews, some poll respondents said they distinguish between Biden voluntarily turning over documents and the behavior of former President Donald Trump, who refused to hand over hundreds of documents, prompting the FBI to raid his home. Still, many are troubled that leaders can’t seem to properly handle sensitive information.

“I feel like it is a big problem in general,” said Jenifer Hudgins, 36, of Gadsden, Alabama, a Democrat who voted for Biden. “I do not feel like any official should have classified documents in their possession, especially at personal residences. It does make you wonder why they have these documents at their residences.”

Trump is facing a special counsel investigation into his retention of several hundred classified documents and other government records at his Mar-a-Lago estate in Florida — and his resistance to giving them up, which led to an FBI warrant and nighttime search to seize them last August.

Banty Patel, a 46-year-old Republican from New Brunswick, New Jersey, said it seems like the same problem to him, but Trump and Biden are being treated very differently.

“I think it looks worse for Joe Biden. He went on the news and said he’d always comply with the FBI and then later they discovered he had documents, too.”

Most Americans have paid at least some attention to the ongoing investigation into classified documents, but they’re not necessarily following it closely. The poll shows that 28% say they’ve read or heard a lot about the situation, while another 35% say they’ve heard some about it but not a lot. An additional 37% say they’ve heard little or nothing about it.

On Wednesday, the FBI searched Biden’s home in Rehoboth Beach, Delaware, but did not find any classified documents there, according to his personal attorney. The Bidens purchased that home, which overlooks a state park adjacent to the beach, in June 2017, months after he left the vice presidency.

Agents did take some handwritten notes and other materials relating to Biden’s time as vice president for review, just as they did last month when they searched his Wilmington home, where they also found classified items.

Biden has said he was surprised by the initial discovery of the documents. His lawyers have described his mishandling of the documents as a “mistake.”

The administration’s public response has been marked by delayed and incomplete information. There are many unanswered questions — on what information the documents contained, exactly how many were discovered and why Biden had them in his possession. Nonetheless, Biden’s attorneys and officials in the White House counsel’s office insist they are being as transparent as possible with the public.

“I am more favorable to Biden than Trump, but I think none of this should be in private hands, it is not correct. They should be kept in government buildings,” said Memduh Can, 45, of Falls Church, Virginia, who said he was an independent who voted for Biden. “For me, though, the most important thing is the economy. If it is managed well, the country will be more secure.”

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The poll of 1,068 adults was conducted Jan. 26-30 using a sample drawn from NORC’s probability-based AmeriSpeak Panel, which is designed to be representative of the U.S. population. The margin of sampling error for all respondents is plus or minus 4.2 percentage points.

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February 14, 2023

WASHINGTON (AP) — While President Joe Biden and his predecessor, Donald Trump, are preparing for a possible rematch in 2024, a new poll finds a notable lack of enthusiasm within the parties for either man as his party’s leader and a clear opening for new standard-bearers.

About a third of both Democrats and Republicans are unsure of who they want leading their party, according to the poll from The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research.

No single Democrat captures significant support when asked who should be their party’s leader; instead, Democrats sprinkle their attention across more than a dozen politicians. Yet they also feel more hopeful than dejected about their party. Some Republicans, meanwhile, coalesce around a couple of individuals — Trump included. But a majority remain uncommitted to him despite his grip on the party, and Republicans have grown somewhat more pessimistic about the GOP’s future.

The findings reflect a deep sense of uncertainty about the future of the nation’s political parties and the challenges both face in tethering their frayed — and perhaps disenchanted — coalitions.

For Democrats, it’s another warning sign about the depth of Biden’s support amid concerns about nominating someone who would be 86 at the end of a second term.

“He’s certainly at an age where he’s not going to run for office, he’s gonna walk,” said David Townsend, a 58-year-old veteran services manager in Indianapolis who leans toward the Democratic Party.

Townsend said he would support Biden if he were the nominee, but he wants a new voice to lead with vigor and energy. He suggests Biden could have a role in shaping the future.

“He needs to be on the lookout for a standard-bearer, someone that could carry his message forward,” Townsend said.

Despite his status as an incumbent president who has accomplished many of the party’s long-sought priorities, fewer than half of Democrats — 41% — identify Biden as the current leader of the party in an open-ended question. Just 12% said they want Biden in the role.

But Democrats are far from rallying behind someone else. They lack consensus on one individual — or even two or three — to lead them. Instead, in the open-ended question, 15 people are each mentioned by between 1% and 5% of Democrats. Thirty-seven percent say they don’t know or don’t answer the question.

By contrast, among Republicans, 22% name Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and 20% name Trump as the individual they want to lead the party.

Republican Daniel Alvarez, 30, of Lakeland, Florida, likes both his governor, DeSantis, and Trump.

“I would preferably take either one of those guys,” said Alvarez, a lineman for a telephone company. But if it came down to it, he’d choose Trump in a primary.

“The country was better” when Trump was president, he said.

Still, there appears to be openness to a new face among Republicans, as there is among Democrats, even if there isn’t someone specific in mind.

A majority of Republicans don’t choose Trump or DeSantis, though no other individual comes close to their level of support. Eleven others — including former Vice President Mike Pence and former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, who launched her 2024 bid Tuesday — are each named by just 1% of Republicans.

Angela Foster became emotional talking about how she feels the country is going in the wrong direction under Biden’s leadership. The 66-year-old Republican-leaning independent voted for Trump in 2020.

“I would love to see Trump back in the Oval Office to straighten things up. Followed by DeSantis. That’s what I want. I want an eight-year plan,” she said with a laugh.

But Foster, who lives in Gallipolis, Ohio, and works part-time as a cashier, said she wants to see the Republican Party get back to its traditional values and quit the infighting.

Only 38% of Republicans say they are optimistic about the future of the Republican Party, while 36% are pessimistic and 24% say they feel neither. Pessimism has grown since October, when 27% said they were.

By comparison, more Democrats look ahead with hope. Forty-four percent of Democrats say they are optimistic about the future of the Democratic Party, while 26% are pessimistic. An additional 30% say they are neither.

Republicans who are pessimistic are less likely than optimistic ones to name a chosen leader. Overall, 34% of Republicans — more than either Trump or DeSantis get individually — say they don’t know or didn’t respond to the question.

Hugh Lawing considers himself an independent who leans toward the Republican Party. He doesn’t want Trump to run and isn’t sure about DeSantis, who he said “wants to be “Trump Jr.” The 59-year-old retiree in Marietta, Georgia, hopes that more options will come forward.

“It’s a long way away and it’s up in the air,” Lawing said.

For Democrats, there’s no shortage of options, including lawmakers and others unlikely to seek the nomination. Trailing Biden at 12% as the preferred leader, new House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, Sen. Bernie Sanders and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez each earn 5%.

Greg Davis, 34, voted for Biden in the 2020 general election. But as a self-identified social Democrat, he was “not impressed” with Biden during the primary campaign and would prefer a progressive candidate.

“I would rather he not,” the Hilliard, Ohio resident said of Biden running for reelection. “But I don’t really have a specific candidate in mind.”

Vice President Kamala Harris, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg and even former President Barack Obama are each named as the preferred party leader by 3% of Democrats.

“I can’t admire that man enough,” Darlene Zwolinski said of Obama.

Zwolinski, a 63-year-old acupuncturist in Lakewood, Colorado, said she’s happy with what Biden has done, but he was mainly the one “to get the win” against Trump and, for that reason, might have to be the one again.

“If there was somebody in the wings that was like (Obama) that could step in, I would love to see Biden bless that person and maybe graciously bow out,” she said. “However, I don’t see anybody right now.”

___

The poll of 1,068 adults was conducted Jan. 26-30 using a sample drawn from NORC’s probability-based AmeriSpeak Panel, which is designed to be representative of the U.S. population. The margin of sampling error for all respondents is plus or minus 4.2 percentage points.

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February 15, 2023

WASHINGTON (AP) — Support among the American public for providing Ukraine weaponry and direct economic assistance has softened as the Russian invasion nears a grim one-year milestone, according to a new poll from The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research.

Forty-eight percent say they favor the U.S. providing weapons to Ukraine, with 29% opposed and 22% saying they’re neither in favor nor opposed. In May 2022, less than three months into the war, 60% of U.S. adults said they were in favor of sending Ukraine weapons.

Americans are about evenly divided on sending government funds directly to Ukraine, with 37% in favor and 38% opposed, with 23% saying neither. The signs of diminished support for Ukraine come as President Joe Biden is set to travel to Poland next week to mark the first anniversary of the biggest conflict in Europe since World War II.

“I am sympathetic for Ukraine’s situation and I feel badly for them, but I feel like we need to first take care of priorities here at home,” said Joe Hernandez, 44, of Rocklin, California.

Hernandez, a Republican, added that it’s difficult to support generous U.S. spending on military and economic assistance to Ukraine when many American communities don’t have the resources to deal with the ramifications of migrants crossing into the U.S. at the southern border, a rise in drug overdoses caused by fentanyl and other lab-produced synthetic opioids, and a homelessness crisis in his state.

Biden has repeatedly stated that the United States will help Ukraine “as long as it takes” to repel the Russian invasion that began on Feb. 24 of last year. Privately, administration officials have warned Ukrainian officials that there is a limit to the patience of a narrowly divided Congress — and American public — for the costs of a war with no clear end. Congress approved about $113 billion in economic, humanitarian and military spending in 2022.

The poll shows 19% of Americans have a great deal of confidence in Biden’s ability to handle the situation in Ukraine, while 37% say they have only some confidence and 43% have hardly any.

Views of Biden’s handling of the war divide largely along partisan lines. Among Democrats, 40% say they have a great deal of confidence in Biden to handle the situation, 50% have some confidence and 9% have hardly any. Among Republicans, a large majority (76%) say they have hardly any confidence. Those numbers are largely unchanged since last May.

Janice Fortado, 78, of Ipswich, Massachusetts, said Biden deserves credit for his handling of the war. She agreed with Biden’s hesitance early in the war about sending advanced and offensive weaponry out of concern that it would give Russian President Vladimir Putin a pretext to expand the war beyond Ukraine and spur a larger global conflict.

But as the war has dragged on — and Ukrainian forces have held up against a more formidable Russian military — some of that resistance has melted away. Biden has approved sending light multiple rocket launchers known as HIMARS, Patriot missile systems, Bradley fighting vehicles, Abrams tanks, and more. Biden, however, continues to balk at Ukraine’s request for fighter jets.

“As my opinion evolved, I came to wish we had offered more to Ukraine sooner,” said Fortado, a Democrat, who added that she hopes the U.S. and allies change their mind on the fighter jets. “We seem to have done a drip, drip, drip. I understand why it is they were hesitant, but we are now beyond that point.”

House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif., before winning the speakership, vowed that Republicans wouldn’t write a “blank check” for Ukraine once they were in charge. And some of the most right-leaning Republicans lashed out at Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell of Kentucky over his support of a $1.7 trillion spending bill passed in December that included about $47 billion for Ukraine.

Alex Hoxeng, 37, of Midland, Texas, said he expected Republicans to take a tougher line on Ukraine spending.

“I think Biden isn’t worried enough about inflation,” said Hoxeng, a Republican. “We should just stay out of it. Ukraine is halfway around the world and we have our own problems.”

A majority of Americans, 63%, still favor imposing economic sanctions on Russia, the poll shows, though that too has decreased from the 71% who said that in May 2022.

And 59% say limiting damage to the U.S. economy is more important than effectively sanctioning Russia, even if that means sanctions are less effective. Almost a year ago, in March 2022, the situation was reversed: 55% said it was a bigger priority to sanction Russia effectively, even if it meant damage to the U.S. economy.

Shandi Carter, 51, of Big Spring, Texas, said she’s become frustrated with the global ramifications the war has had on consumers, including volatile gas prices and increasing food costs. Carter, who tends to vote Republican, said she’s been displeased with Biden’s handling of the crisis but doesn’t think Donald Trump would have done any better had he won the 2020 election.

“I just wish it was over. I wish it had never started,” Carter said. “It didn’t matter if there was a Democrat or Republican there. Putin was going to do what he wanted to do.”

Overall, the poll shows that about a quarter of Americans, 26%, now say the U.S. should have a major role in the situation, down from as high as 40% in March 2022. Still, 49% say the U.S. should have a minor role, and just 24% say it should have no role.

Since last March, the percentage of Democrats saying the U.S. should have a major role has dipped slightly from 48% to 40%, while among Republicans it has dropped from 35% to 17%.

Democrats also remain more likely than Republicans to favor imposing economic sanctions on Russia (75% to 60%), accepting refugees from Ukraine (73% to 42%), providing weapons to Ukraine (63% to 39%) and sending government funds to Ukraine (59% to 21%). Support has softened at least slightly among both Democrats and Republicans since last May.

Tom Sadauskas, 68, a political independent from northern Virginia, said he doesn’t believe an end to the war is near. That makes him worried about the direction of American support for a conflict that he believes could have reverberations far beyond Ukraine if Putin is successful.

“I worry that as a country we get easily distracted,” said Sadauskas, who approves of Biden’s handling of the war thus far. “It’s easy to say, ‘It’s a faraway country. That it really doesn’t matter.’ But if Ukraine goes, what is our attitude going to be when Putin decides to move on and threaten one of our smaller neighboring NATO countries?”

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The poll of 1,068 adults was conducted Jan. 26-30 using a sample drawn from NORC’s probability-based AmeriSpeak Panel, which is designed to be representative of the U.S. population. The margin of sampling error for all respondents is plus or minus 4.2 percentage points.

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February 23, 2023

WASHINGTON (AP) — Just 40% of U.S. adults approve of how President Joe Biden is handling relations with China, a new poll shows, with a majority anxious about Beijing’s influence as the White House finds its agenda increasingly shaped by global rivalries.

About 6 in 10 say they are gravely concerned about China, the world’s second-largest economy after the United States, according to the survey by The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research. Biden has portrayed his domestic agenda on infrastructure and computer chip development as part of a broader competition with China, arguing that the future is at stake.

Tensions with China are crackling after government officials discovered and shot down a Chinese spy balloon two weeks ago. The Biden administration has preserved tariffs on imports from China and restricted the sale of advanced computer chips to the country, angering Chinese officials who want to fuel faster economic growth.

There are additional concerns over whether China will provide some form of military support for Russia’s war in Ukraine. As the war nears its one-year mark, the poll shows that serious concern about the threat Russia poses to the U.S. has fallen. Concern about China now outpaces that about Russia; last year, about even percentages had named the two countries as a threat.

Biden has tried to frame relations with China as a competition with boundaries, rather than as a larger geopolitical clash.

“We seek competition, not conflict, with China,” Biden said last week. “ We’re not looking for a new Cold War. … We’ll responsibly manage that competition so that it doesn’t veer into conflict.”

Approval of Biden’s foreign policy is roughly in line with views of his presidency more broadly, a possible sign that his agenda is not viewed through its individual components but larger perceptions of the president himself.

The poll found that 45% of U.S. adults say they approve of Biden’s overall performance, while 54% disapprove. That’s similar to views of Biden in recent months. Forty-one percent praised the president in late January and 43% did in December.

Concern about China’s global influence as a threat to the U.S. is similar to last year but has grown steadily in recent years from 54% just after Biden took office and 48% in January 2020.

Melvin Dunlap, 68, said Biden needed to be careful with China, given the U.S. reliance on Chinese manufacturing. The Peyton, Colorado, resident said he believes Biden “has a good heart” and “means well,” generally approving of Biden’s approach.

“You tread cautiously,” said Dunlap, who retired from law enforcement. “You show strength, not weakness.”

Fewer adults feel as wary about Russia as they did just after its military invaded Ukraine last year. Now, 53% say they’re seriously concerned about Russia, down from 64% in March 2022.

Michael Marchek, 33, an engineer in the Atlanta area, said Russia’s military has struggled in Ukraine, failing to achieve its goal of taking the capital of Kyiv and sustaining steep casualties that showed a sense of disarray.

“I was more concerned about Russia before they proved they were less effective than they appeared to be on the surface,” Marchek said. “They played their hand and they did not play their hand effectively. They have nuclear capabilities and other things, but I don’t think they’re interested in using them.”

Biden made a surprise visit to Kyiv on Monday, declaring to that country’s president, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, “You remind us that freedom is priceless; it’s worth fighting for for as long as it takes. And that’s how long we’re going to be with you, Mr. President, for as long as it takes.”

To Ukraine’s defense, the U.S. has committed tanks, armored vehicles, a thousand artillery systems, more than 2 million rounds of artillery ammunition and more than 50 advanced launch rocket systems, and anti-ship and air defense systems.

While Biden views the preservation of NATO and countering Russian aggression as necessary, most U.S. adults say it should not come at the expense of their economy. Oil, natural gas and food prices initially worsened after Russian President Vladimir Putin sent troops into Ukraine last February, causing U.S. inflation to hit a 40-year high in June. Inflation has since eased, and the U.S. and much of Europe have so far evaded recessions despite the expected damage. Russia has adapted to financial sanctions and export controls designed to erode its ability to fund the war.

Yet in a late January AP-NORC poll, a majority of U.S. adults – 59% — said limiting damage to the American economy is more important than penalizing Russia, even if that means sanctions are less effective. The balance of opinion had been the reverse in the early months after the invasion.

The U.S. economy remains a sensitive subject for Biden. People are generally unimpressed by the 3.4% unemployment rate. Nor has a seven-month decline in inflation — which is still running high — done much to assuage fears.

While economists have yet to declare a recession, respondents to the survey feel as though the economy is mired in a downturn.

Overall, the new poll shows 32% say the economy is in good shape. That’s a slight improvement from 24% in January, which was consistent with views late last year. Still, 68% say the economy is in bad shape, and approval of Biden’s job handling the economy has remained negative. Only 36% say they approve of the president on the economy, similar to last month and late last year.

“It’s basically the inflation that we’re all worried about,” said Adriana Stan, 36, a teacher in Columbia, South Carolina.

Stan bought a house in December at a 5.5% mortgage rate, more than double the rate during the coronavirus pandemic. The Federal Reserve has increased its own benchmark interest rates in order to push down inflation, a move that has also driven up borrowing costs for homebuyers. Stan said her grocery bills are also much higher.

“We buy the same stuff,” Stan said. “But at the end of the month I feel like I’m paying so much more.”

___

The poll of 1,247 adults was conducted Feb. 16-20 using a sample drawn from NORC’s probability-based AmeriSpeak Panel, which is designed to be representative of the U.S. population. The margin of sampling error for all respondents is plus or minus 3.7 percentage points.

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March 7, 2023

SAN DIEGO (AP) — A sharp drop in illegal border crossings since December could blunt a Republican point of attack against President Joe Biden as the Democratic leader moves to reshape a broken asylum system that has dogged him and his predecessors.

A new poll by The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research shows some support for changing the number of immigrants and asylum-seekers allowed into the country. About 4 in 10 U.S. adults say the level of immigration and asylum-seekers should be lowered, while about 2 in 10 say they should be higher, according to the poll. About a third want the numbers to remain the same.

The decrease in border crossings followed Biden’s announcement in early January that Mexico would take back Cubans, Haitians, Nicaraguans and Venezuelans under a pandemic-era rule that denies migrants the right to seek asylum as part of an effort to prevent the spread of COVID-19. At the same time, the U.S. agreed to admit up to 30,000 a month of those four nationalities on humanitarian parole if they apply online, enter at an airport and find a financial sponsor.

The administration has also proposed generally denying asylum to anyone who travels though another country on their way to the U.S. without seeking protection there — effectively all non-Mexicans who appear at the U.S. southern border.

The new rules put forth by Biden could help the president fight back against critics who complain he hasn’t done enough to address border security issues. But the moves have also fueled anger among some of his Democratic allies who are concerned that he is furthering a Trump-era policy they view as anti-immigrant and hurting vulnerable migrants who are trying to escape dangerous conditions in their native countries.

And the new changes — and subsequent drop in illegal border crossings — are unlikely to stop the barrage of attacks from conservatives who see border security as a powerful political weapon.

Biden has been on the defensive as Republicans and right-wing media outlets have hammered him over the soaring increase in migrant encounters at the border. The new House GOP leadership has held hearings on what they call the “Biden border crisis” and talked of impeaching Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas.

Agents detained migrants more than 2.5 million times at the southern border in 2022, including more than 250,000 in December, the highest on record. According to a U.S. official who was not authorized to discuss the matter publicly and spoke on condition of anonymity, Border Patrol agents stopped migrants about 130,000 times in February, similar to January.

Among Republicans, the poll shows about two-thirds say there should be fewer immigrants and asylum-seekers, while only about 1 in 10 say there should be more.

Democrats are split: About a quarter say the number of immigrants should increase, a quarter say it should decrease, and about 4 in 10 say it should remain the same. They are slightly more supportive of asylum-seekers specifically, with 37% supporting an increase, 26% backing a decrease, and 36% saying the number should remain the same.

Under U.S. law, numbers are not capped on asylum, which was largely a policy afterthought until about a decade ago. Since 2017, the U.S. has been the world’s most popular destination for asylum-seekers, according to U.N. figures. Even those who lose in court can stay for years while their cases wind through a backlogged system.

Omar Reffell, a 38-year-old independent voter in Houston, said that he supports immigration but that news coverage of “caravans of people trying to cross the border” sends the wrong message to migrants.

“People think that they just show up at the border, come across, there is not going to be any repercussions,” Reffell said. “I’m not against immigration. I think immigration is good for the country, but it has to happen in a very orderly manner or it puts a lot of stress, especially on the border states being able to provide resources.”

More than 100,000 migrants each month were being released in U.S. border cities late last year with notices to appear in immigration court or report to immigration authorities.

Dan Restrepo, a top White House adviser on Latin America during Barack Obama’s presidency, believes the American public will accept high levels of immigration — if a systematic process can be followed.

The challenge in managing migration “is the sense of chaos and disorder that can be created by images of overwhelmed processing facilities and the like at the physical border,” he said. “It’s less the numbers and more the imagery” that bothers voters.

Republicans cast Biden’s expansion of humanitarian parole for four nationalities as a political ploy to divert attention from the border and are not likely to let up on their criticism of the president on immigration. The Federation of American Immigration Reform, an anti-immigration group, called January’s plunge in border numbers “a shell game” to boost Biden’s reelection prospects.

Fox News Channel has hit hard on the story over the last year. Reporter Bill Melguin said in a “Battle for the Border” special on Nov. 3 that he had spent more than 200 days on the Texas border.

“We’ve been shooting the video all day long,” Melugin said in a typical report from the Texas town of Eagle Pass. “We keep getting these massive groups of 150 to 200 crossing every single day.”

The network’s night-vision drone cameras have showed hundreds of migrants walking across the border, each one appearing as a luminous white stick slowly advancing across a dark screen.

The poll found 39% of U.S. adults approve of how Biden is handling immigration, and 38% approve of him on border security — slightly below his overall approval ratings. About two-thirds of Democrats but only about 1 in 10 Republicans say they approve of his handling of either issue.

The poll was taken Feb. 16-20, just before the administration proposed on Feb. 21 that asylum should generally be denied to migrants who pass through another country without applying for protection there if it is deemed safe. The administration is angling to have the new rule take effect before the pandemic-related limits on asylum are expected to end May 11, though legal challenges appear imminent.

Becky Steelsmith, a 70-year-old independent voter from Zachary, Louisiana, is reluctant to heap blame on Biden because solutions also eluded his predecessors, but she notes that the optics are not great.

“The only reason why I disagree with Biden’s handling of it is that I think he’s a little too soft,” said Steelsmith, a retired teacher. “I’m not saying it’s his fault that it’s happening. I’m saying that as president, he needs to sit down and really focus and come up with some kind of a solution, or the beginning of a solution.”

___

The poll of 1,247 adults was conducted using a sample drawn from NORC’s probability-based AmeriSpeak Panel, which is designed to be representative of the U.S. population. The margin of sampling error for all respondents is plus or minus 3.7 percentage points.

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