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<title>通过预售验证销量 - 精益副业</title>
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<ol class="chapter"><li class="chapter-item expanded "><a href="index.html"><strong aria-hidden="true">1.</strong> 精益副业</a></li><li class="chapter-item expanded "><a href="01.html"><strong aria-hidden="true">2.</strong> 为什么副业特别重要</a></li><li><ol class="section"><li class="chapter-item expanded "><a href="0101.html"><strong aria-hidden="true">2.1.</strong> 职业可能性</a></li><li><ol class="section"><li class="chapter-item expanded "><a href="010101.html"><strong aria-hidden="true">2.1.1.</strong> 职业的四大象限</a></li><li class="chapter-item expanded "><a href="010102.html"><strong aria-hidden="true">2.1.2.</strong> 没有副业的职业</a></li><li class="chapter-item expanded "><a href="010103.html"><strong aria-hidden="true">2.1.3.</strong> 副业带来的可能性</a></li></ol></li><li class="chapter-item expanded "><a href="0102.html"><strong aria-hidden="true">2.2.</strong> 职业自由度</a></li><li><ol class="section"><li class="chapter-item expanded "><a href="010201.html"><strong aria-hidden="true">2.2.1.</strong> 从中指备用金说起</a></li><li class="chapter-item expanded "><a href="010202.html"><strong aria-hidden="true">2.2.2.</strong> PlanB和反脆弱</a></li><li class="chapter-item expanded "><a href="010203.html"><strong aria-hidden="true">2.2.3.</strong> 全新的工作自由度</a></li></ol></li><li class="chapter-item expanded "><a href="0103.html"><strong aria-hidden="true">2.3.</strong> 职业成长性</a></li><li><ol class="section"><li class="chapter-item expanded "><a href="010301A.html"><strong aria-hidden="true">2.3.1.</strong> 新技术练兵场</a></li><li class="chapter-item expanded "><a href="010302.html"><strong aria-hidden="true">2.3.2.</strong> 业务敏感度</a></li></ol></li></ol></li><li class="chapter-item expanded "><a href="02.html"><strong aria-hidden="true">3.</strong> 如何优雅地做副业</a></li><li><ol class="section"><li class="chapter-item expanded "><a href="0201.html"><strong aria-hidden="true">3.1.</strong> 想明白核心资源和核心优势</a></li><li><ol class="section"><li class="chapter-item expanded "><a href="020101.html"><strong aria-hidden="true">3.1.1.</strong> 副业的核心资源</a></li><li class="chapter-item expanded "><a href="020102.html"><strong aria-hidden="true">3.1.2.</strong> 副业的核心优势</a></li></ol></li><li class="chapter-item expanded "><a href="0202.html"><strong aria-hidden="true">3.2.</strong> 时间片</a></li><li><ol class="section"><li class="chapter-item expanded "><a href="020201.html"><strong aria-hidden="true">3.2.1.</strong> 时间片的销售</a></li><li class="chapter-item expanded "><a href="020202.html"><strong aria-hidden="true">3.2.2.</strong> 时间片的优化</a></li><li class="chapter-item expanded "><a href="020203.html"><strong aria-hidden="true">3.2.3.</strong> 突破时间片限制</a></li></ol></li><li class="chapter-item expanded "><a href="0203.html"><strong aria-hidden="true">3.3.</strong> 资产和被动收入</a></li><li><ol class="section"><li class="chapter-item expanded "><a href="020301.html"><strong aria-hidden="true">3.3.1.</strong> 什么是资产</a></li><li class="chapter-item expanded "><a href="020302.html"><strong aria-hidden="true">3.3.2.</strong> 资产的获得方式</a></li><li class="chapter-item expanded "><a href="020303.html"><strong aria-hidden="true">3.3.3.</strong> 资产的量化评估</a></li></ol></li></ol></li><li class="chapter-item expanded "><a href="03.html"><strong aria-hidden="true">4.</strong> 优选资产</a></li><li><ol class="section"><li class="chapter-item expanded "><a href="0301.html"><strong aria-hidden="true">4.1.</strong> 知识和人脉的变现</a></li><li><ol class="section"><li class="chapter-item expanded "><a href="030101.html"><strong aria-hidden="true">4.1.1.</strong> 付费视频课</a></li><li class="chapter-item expanded "><a href="030102.html"><strong aria-hidden="true">4.1.2.</strong> 付费专栏</a></li><li class="chapter-item expanded "><a href="030103.html"><strong aria-hidden="true">4.1.3.</strong> 付费社群</a></li><li class="chapter-item expanded "><a href="030104.html"><strong aria-hidden="true">4.1.4.</strong> 图书出版</a></li></ol></li><li class="chapter-item expanded "><a href="0302.html"><strong aria-hidden="true">4.2.</strong> 自有产品和服务</a></li><li><ol class="section"><li class="chapter-item expanded "><a href="030201.html"><strong aria-hidden="true">4.2.1.</strong> 应用市场卖APP</a></li></ol></li></ol></li><li class="chapter-item expanded "><a href="04.html"><strong aria-hidden="true">5.</strong> 精益副业</a></li><li><ol class="section"><li class="chapter-item expanded "><a href="0401.html"><strong aria-hidden="true">5.1.</strong> 精益副业流程</a></li><li><ol class="section"><li class="chapter-item expanded "><a href="040104.html"><strong aria-hidden="true">5.1.1.</strong> 商业模式画布</a></li><li class="chapter-item expanded "><a href="040105.html"><strong aria-hidden="true">5.1.2.</strong> 最小可行产品和产品市场契合</a></li></ol></li><li class="chapter-item expanded "><a href="0403.html"><strong aria-hidden="true">5.2.</strong> 精益独立开发实践</a></li><li><ol class="section"><li class="chapter-item expanded "><a href="040301.html"><strong aria-hidden="true">5.2.1.</strong> 独立开发的精益流程</a></li><li class="chapter-item expanded "><a href="040302.html"><strong aria-hidden="true">5.2.2.</strong> 福利单词项目简介</a></li><li class="chapter-item expanded "><a href="040303.html"><strong aria-hidden="true">5.2.3.</strong> 福利单词的商业模式画布</a></li><li class="chapter-item expanded "><a href="040304.html"><strong aria-hidden="true">5.2.4.</strong> 通过用户画像细化客户</a></li><li class="chapter-item expanded "><a href="040305.html"><strong aria-hidden="true">5.2.5.</strong> 画像→场景→功能和分期</a></li><li class="chapter-item expanded "><a href="040306.html"><strong aria-hidden="true">5.2.6.</strong> 什么是好的商业设计</a></li><li class="chapter-item expanded "><a href="040307.html"><strong aria-hidden="true">5.2.7.</strong> 人人能用的四大原则</a></li><li class="chapter-item expanded "><a href="040308.html"><strong aria-hidden="true">5.2.8.</strong> 独特Logo解决方案</a></li><li class="chapter-item expanded "><a href="040309.html"><strong aria-hidden="true">5.2.9.</strong> 使用AdobeXD设计界面</a></li><li class="chapter-item expanded "><a href="040310.html"><strong aria-hidden="true">5.2.10.</strong> 个人支付解决方案</a></li><li class="chapter-item expanded "><a href="040311.html"><strong aria-hidden="true">5.2.11.</strong> 使用「兔小巢」处理用户反馈</a></li><li class="chapter-item expanded "><a href="040312.html"><strong aria-hidden="true">5.2.12.</strong> 2A3R漏斗和增长优化</a></li></ol></li><li class="chapter-item expanded "><a href="0402.html"><strong aria-hidden="true">5.3.</strong> 精益网课变现实践</a></li><li><ol class="section"><li class="chapter-item expanded "><a href="040207.html"><strong aria-hidden="true">5.3.1.</strong> 大纲的注意点</a></li><li class="chapter-item expanded "><a href="040209.html" class="active"><strong aria-hidden="true">5.3.2.</strong> 通过预售验证销量</a></li><li class="chapter-item expanded "><a href="040210.html"><strong aria-hidden="true">5.3.3.</strong> 常见的课程片段类型</a></li><li class="chapter-item expanded "><a href="040211.html"><strong aria-hidden="true">5.3.4.</strong> 文稿讲义类课程片段的制作</a></li><li class="chapter-item expanded "><a href="040212.html"><strong aria-hidden="true">5.3.5.</strong> 屏幕录制类课程片段的制作</a></li><li class="chapter-item expanded "><a href="040213.html"><strong aria-hidden="true">5.3.6.</strong> 真人出镜类课程片段的制作</a></li><li class="chapter-item expanded "><a href="040214.html"><strong aria-hidden="true">5.3.7.</strong> 虚拟形象类课程片段的制作</a></li><li class="chapter-item expanded "><a href="040215.html"><strong aria-hidden="true">5.3.8.</strong> 最常用的视频剪辑操作</a></li><li class="chapter-item expanded "><a href="040216.html"><strong aria-hidden="true">5.3.9.</strong> 最常用的音频处理操作</a></li><li class="chapter-item expanded "><a href="040217.html"><strong aria-hidden="true">5.3.10.</strong> 字幕的制作和自动生成</a></li><li class="chapter-item expanded "><a href="040218.html"><strong aria-hidden="true">5.3.11.</strong> 流量池和二次购买</a></li><li class="chapter-item expanded "><a href="040219.html"><strong aria-hidden="true">5.3.12.</strong> 如何有效地反盗版</a></li></ol></li><li class="chapter-item expanded "><a href="0404.html"><strong aria-hidden="true">5.4.</strong> 进一步提升副业的鲁棒性</a></li><li><ol class="section"><li class="chapter-item expanded "><a href="040401.html"><strong aria-hidden="true">5.4.1.</strong> 网课+独立开发的双引擎副业模式</a></li></ol></li></ol></li></ol>
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<h1 id="通过预售验证销量"><a class="header" href="#通过预售验证销量">通过预售验证销量</a></h1>
<h2 id="为什么要验证"><a class="header" href="#为什么要验证">为什么要验证</a></h2>
<blockquote>
<p>随机抽样了某云课堂上近 500 门付费课程（通过搜索「课」字），其中销售不到 30 的有 24%，销售小于等于 1 的 10%</p>
</blockquote>
<p>这是我之前分析某课程平台时的抽样数据，有十分之一的课程销量小于等于一，这个一还很可能是作者；而销售不到 30 套的课程约四分之一。</p>
<p>这些失败的课程背后，每一个都可能有几十几百个小时的制作时间，既然我们把宝贵的副业时间投入其中，就应该尽量避免重蹈覆辙。</p>
<h2 id="如何验证"><a class="header" href="#如何验证">如何验证</a></h2>
<p>回到我们这一节课的标题上来，「通过预售验证销量」。两个关键词「预售」，「销量」。</p>
<ol>
<li>预售，我们用什么来做预售？简单一点可以用「课程介绍」，复杂一些则可以提供「试学章节」，但我们测试下来最合适的是「课程大纲」。它能非常清楚的描述内容范围。</li>
<li>销量，如何来评估？我们需要给自己设定一个达标的销售额，一般设定为比成本略高，预售结束时如果销售不达标，我们就退款，不制作这个课程了。</li>
</ol>
<p>抓住这两个关键，就可以做好验证。在此基础上，可以扩展出一个完整的流程：</p>
<ol>
<li>准备课程介绍资料，主要是大纲和试学章节</li>
<li>设定验证的目标，设定预售达标值</li>
<li>开始预售</li>
<li>每天统计销售量，并根据反馈调整介绍</li>
<li>预售达标则进入课程制作</li>
<li>预售不达标则进行退款，并反思价值主张</li>
</ol>
<p>要支撑这个流程，我们大致有三种方案：</p>
<ol>
<li>通过众筹/预售平台来完成</li>
<li>自建众筹/预售平台</li>
<li>通过付费群简单解决下</li>
</ol>
<p>下边我们分别来说：</p>
<h3 id="众筹预售平台"><a class="header" href="#众筹预售平台">众筹/预售平台</a></h3>
<p>使用现成的众筹/预售平台是最省心的。其实最方便的是微博提供的众筹功能，集传播和销售于一体，很适合在微博有影响力的同学。</p>
<p><img src="images/2cd075474f662e50368b031e3b849b15684716429c31fd09f7979f3c804eef9b.png" alt="picture 49" /></p>
<p>之前我用的时候还挺好找，现在这个功能藏得有点深，在微博的钱包二级菜单里。当然，其他的平台也是可以的。大体来讲，这类平台的问题在于操作相对麻烦，对个人的话，除了收取服务费，往往还会代扣 20% 左右的税。</p>
<p>另一方面，课程还不是实物商品，众筹完了可以直接寄送；我们众筹完以后，可能还要提供在线观看课程的功能。如果放到其他平台，还有一个账号统一的问题要解决。</p>
<h3 id="自建众筹预售平台"><a class="header" href="#自建众筹预售平台">自建众筹/预售平台</a></h3>
<p>对于我们程序员来讲，自建众筹/预售平台是很容易的事情。找不到满意的平台，当然是自己动手丰衣足食。功能开发上很简单，但这里有一个非技术因素，那就是支付接口往往需要公司资质来申请，个人很难申请下来。所以还没有搞定支付的同学们在动手前要留意，不要花几周写完系统要上线时才想起来。</p>
<h3 id="付费群"><a class="header" href="#付费群">付费群</a></h3>
<p>付费群就不需要任何的开发，交易完全走一对一支付，只要自己在年终走个税申报就行。它的缺点在于维护成本有点高，需要手工跟进整个众筹的流程；群功能也相对有限，甚至出现过仿冒老师的账号进行收款的事情。</p>
<p>这里也分享一个微信批量退款的小技巧：将要退款的同学拉到一个微信群中，然后发一个人数乘以金额的普通红包就可以了。注意是<strong>普通</strong>红包，不是<strong>拼手气</strong>红包。</p>
<p>综合以上，我们的建议是，早期通过付费群或者一对一付费就可以了。等到付费用户多了以后，再专门开发一个系统来做预售/众筹。</p>
<p>我们也做了一个众筹+课程托管的一体化平台自用，等成熟以后会考虑开放出来，感兴趣的同学可以关注下我的微博。</p>
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